Summary of this issue:
Zhou viewpoint: 1) household:] in March, under the background of the epidemic disturbance distributed in many places in China, the zero data of real estate and furniture society continued to be weak, and the export growth rate rebounded slightly. In the follow-up, we believe that with the continuous improvement of local real estate policies, the higher levels of raw material prices and sea freight have been slightly corrected, and the superposition of the epidemic has delayed the release of furniture consumption demand. It is suggested to pay attention to the left layout time point after the correction of sector valuation. Home furnishing companies are suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (22-year pe23x), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (22-year pe18x), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (22-year pe12x), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (22-year pe12x), Minhua Holdings (22-year pe9x). 2) Papermaking: the growth rate of papermaking output rebounded slightly in March. The recent epidemic in China has disturbed the industry demand, and the paper price is stable as a whole. Affected by strikes, supply chain mismatches and other issues, international wood pulp has remained high, and the cost side has formed a strong support for the paper price. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (22-year pe11x) and Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) (22-year pe7x). 3) Packaging and printing: the packaging sector suggests to pay attention to the leading paper packaging company Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) (pe15x in 22 years). With the rapid promotion of the company’s large packaging layout, it is expected that the revenue scale will continue to develop steadily, the cost pressure of raw materials is expected to ease in the future, the efficiency of superimposed smart factories will be improved, and the profitability is expected to be repaired. 4) Other household light industries: we are optimistic about Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) (pe25x for 22 years) the traditional core business channel barriers are stable, continue to optimize the retail operation system, accelerate the omni-channel layout through online business and direct supply mode, and improve the retail service capacity.
The light industry manufacturing sector performed slightly worse than the market last week (April 18-april 22, 2022). Last week, the light industry manufacturing industry index fell 4.4%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.2%. The overall performance was inferior to the market. In the light industry manufacturing segment, the packaging and printing industry index was – 5.1%, the entertainment industry index was – 1.1%, the household goods industry index was – 4.0%, and the paper industry index was – 5.7%.
Home furnishings: domestic sales of furniture were weak in March, exports rebounded, and the price of raw materials fell slightly last week. In terms of real estate, the completed residential area was – 15.3% year-on-year in March of 22 years, and the growth rate was 5.7pct lower than that from January to February of 22 years. In terms of residential sales area, the growth rate of national residential sales area decreased by – 23.2% year-on-year in March, down 9.4pct from January to February of 22 years. In terms of new construction and land area purchased, the new residential construction area was – 25.1% year-on-year in March of 22 years, and the growth rate was 10.2pct lower than that from January to February of 22 years; The area of land purchased in March was – 41.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 1.3pct month on month compared with January February of 22 years. The sales growth of the furniture industry slowed down month on month. The retail sales of furniture of Enterprises above Designated Size in March of 22 decreased by – 8.8% year-on-year, 2.8pct slower than that from January to February of 22. The sales volume of building materials and home stores in March of 22 years was + 38.6% year-on-year, 48.0 PCT slower than that in February. The income of furniture manufacturing industry of industrial enterprises was + 9.9% year-on-year in February, 2.1pct slower than that in December of 21 years. The export amount of furniture and its parts was + 7.4% year-on-year in March, and the growth rate stopped falling and rebounded compared with the previous two months. In the past week as of April 23, 2022, in terms of chemical raw materials, the market prices of TDI, MDI and polyether were – 1.0%, – 0.8% and – 0.9% respectively compared with last week. In terms of hardware raw materials, copper prices were + 1.0% month on month (MOM) last week. The high level of sea freight dropped. Last week, CCFI: the sea freight of the US west route was – 0.7% month on month.
Papermaking: the prices of coniferous pulp and futures pulp rose slightly this week, and the prices of various kinds of paper were stable. The past week as of April 23, 2022: the price of double adhesive tape, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 7000 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6700 yuan / ton (unchanged); Price of white cardboard, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6710 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) 6820 yuan / ton (unchanged); Coated paper price, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6800 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6500 yuan / ton (unchanged). Dongguan Jiulong Dilong Dongguan Jiulong corrugated paper 4440 yuan / ton (unchanged), kraft carton paper 4780 yuan / ton (unchanged). In terms of cost, as of April 23, 2022, the purchase price of Tianjin Jiulong waste yellow paperboard was 2240 yuan / ton (unchanged), the price of Brazilian goldfish broad-leaved pulp was 780 dollars / ton (unchanged), the price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp was 1010 dollars / ton (up 20 yuan / ton), and the pulp futures price was 7044 yuan / ton, up + 4.00% from last week.
Packaging: the price of tinsector decreased slightly and the price of aluminum rebounded slightly. As of April 23, 2022, last week, tinsector Tianjin Furen spcc0 The price of 18 900 tinsector coil is 8350 yuan / ton (down 60 yuan / ton), and the price of A00 aluminum is 21838 yuan / ton (up 576 yuan / ton).
Risk factors: the risk of decline in real estate sales and the risk of sharp rise in raw material costs.
