Core conclusion
In the first quarter, China’s new PV installed capacity was + 148% year-on-year, and the module export was + 209% year-on-year. The demand for PV installed capacity outside China remained high. In 2022, the installed capacity of 1-3 kV increased by 13.21 million KW, an increase of 7.88 million KW over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of + 148%. On the whole, China’s photovoltaic installed capacity in the first quarter was mainly distributed, and the start-up of large-scale ground power stations was slow due to the high price of upstream raw materials. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous growth of distributed installed capacity and the large volume of ground power stations, China’s demand will maintain a high landscape throughout the year. In terms of export, the cumulative export volume of photovoltaic modules in China in the first quarter was 41.30gw, a year-on-year increase of + 208.5%. In March, the export volume was 14.46mw, with a month on month ratio of – 2.85% and a year-on-year ratio of + 85.03%. Excluding the influence of Indian goods preparation, the export of 3-volt components still increased by 22.37% month on month. In the context of the current sharp increase in the cost of natural gas power generation in Europe, the development of new energy power generation is expected to accelerate, and the demand prospect of photovoltaic overseas market in the future is broad. Based on the situation outside China, it is expected that the global photovoltaic industry will maintain and accelerate development in the future, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 220gw in 22 years. Recommended Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) ( Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . SZ), Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ( Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) . SZ), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ( Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) . SH), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ( Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) . SH).
The output of lithium battery materials increased significantly year-on-year, and China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile developed vigorously. From January to March 2022, China’s output of ternary cathode was 121000 tons, with a month on month ratio of – 1.8% and a year-on-year increase of + 59.5%; The output of lithium iron phosphate cathode in China was 177000 tons, with a month on month increase of + 36.8% and a year-on-year increase of + 160.0%; The output of artificial graphite in China was 203000 tons, with a month on month increase of + 16.7% and a year-on-year increase of + 89.8%; China’s wet diaphragm shipments reached 2.17 billion square meters, a month on month increase of + 14.4% and a year-on-year increase of + 105.4%; The shipment volume of dry process diaphragm in China was 480 million square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 1.4% and a year-on-year increase of + 60.3%; China’s electrolyte output was 141000 tons, a month on month increase of + 7.9% and a year-on-year increase of + 83.6%. The four lithium battery materials have achieved a year-on-year growth of more than 50%. This week, the State Council Information Technology Office held a press conference on the development of industry and informatization in the first quarter. China has promoted 10.33 million Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles, and the cumulative sales of Chinese brand new energy passenger vehicles increased by 1.5 times year-on-year, higher than the overall growth rate of the market. China has become an important force leading the electric transformation of the global automobile industry. Recommended Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . SZ), Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) . SZ), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) . SZ).
The newly installed capacity of 22q1 wind power is + 50% year-on-year, and we are optimistic about the future development of the wind power industry. According to the data released by the national energy administration, the newly installed capacity of wind power in 22q1 was 7.90gw, a year-on-year increase of + 50%; By the end of March 22, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power was 336.52gw, a year-on-year increase of + 17%. As the average temperature in the first quarter is low, which is not conducive to onshore and offshore wind power construction, the first quarter is the off-season of wind power construction. We expect that the new installed capacity of wind power in China is expected to reach 58gw in 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 26%. The installed capacity of wind power is expected to continue to grow, and we continue to be optimistic about the submarine cable link with excellent competition pattern and high entry barriers. Recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) ( Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) . SH), Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) ( Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) . SH), etc.
Risk tips: policy risk, intensified market competition and other risks, supply chain shortage risk, etc
