Core view of this week: the central bank has repeatedly voiced to increase financial support for entity enterprises and real estate. Local governments continue to expand policy relaxation due to urban policies. More cities have reduced the proportion of down payment and increased the amount of loans. Wuxi, Yancheng, Changde and other places have issued comprehensive relaxation policies. The growth rate of new houses was still lower than that of the same period last week. The year-on-year decline of the second-hand housing market expanded, and the first and second tier cities decreased significantly year-on-year and month on month. In terms of land, the supply and transaction area increased this week, but the supply-demand ratio continued to rise, the transaction construction surface of the second tier cities recovered rapidly, and the third tier cities continued to remain indifferent. There was also a certain recovery in financing this week, the issuance of bonds and debt repayment increased, the net financing amount changed from negative to positive, and the number and amount of trust issuance increased month on month. On the whole, due to the impact of the epidemic and the overall environment, the transaction area of new houses and second-hand houses increased month on month this week, the year-on-year decline expanded, the month on month rise and year-on-year decline narrowed in the land market, and the inventory of commercial houses continued to rise.
Key policy analysis: among the policies issued this week, local policies continue to relax, continue to reduce the down payment ratio of provident fund loans, reduce deed tax and provide house purchase subsidies, which are still mainly for the sales side. The central government continued to increase the easing policy. The central bank has repeatedly voiced its support for entity enterprises and real estate, and SASAC has supported the financing and M & A of central enterprises. After the central government continues to set the tone for policy easing this time, the policy will continue to complete the central to local transmission, the urban energy level of local policies will continue to improve, the policy strength will continue to increase, and the coverage will change from one-way to comprehensive. The policy of actually improving the financing end of enterprises is expected to be implemented. Recently, with the continuous relaxation of real estate policies due to urban policies in local cities, due to the impact of the epidemic, the decline of purchasing power, lack of confidence and expectation of house purchase, there are no obvious signs of recovery at the sales end, and the liquidity of private enterprises at the financing end has not been significantly improved. The first quarter data of the Bureau of statistics show that the real estate is still under pressure. Based on the above situation, the central government also began to introduce further easing policies, and the central bank mentioned for several days to support the real economy and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. On the one hand, delay the repayment of personal mortgage loans in the areas affected by the epidemic, encourage the implementation of urban policies to optimize credit policies, and adjust the down payment ratio, loan amount and interest rate. On the other hand, increasing the support of M & A loans and distinguishing project risks from enterprise group risks are conducive to accelerating the process of real estate risk disposal.
One week market review: this week (2022 / 4 / 182022 / 4 / 22), Shenwan real estate index fell 9.2%, underperforming Hang Seng Composite Index by 5.33pct, ranking 32 / 32 among various sectors, and Hang Seng real estate construction industry index fell 5.84%, underperforming Hang Seng Composite Index by 1.33pct. The real estate companies with the top three increases this week are: Shenzhen Wongtee International Enterprise Co.Ltd(000056) (9.09%), Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited(600064) (5.81%), Hna Investment Group Co.Ltd(000616) (4.55%). The real estate companies with the top three declines this week are: Tianyu real estate (- 84.55%), Beih-Property Co.Ltd(600791) (- 35.96%) and Langold Real Estate Co.Ltd(002305) (- 32.46%). This week (2022 / 4 / 8-2022 / 4 / 22), the Hang Seng property service and management sector fell 10.27%, underperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index by 5.76pct and the Hang Seng China enterprise index by 4.67pct, ranking 28 / 28 among various sectors. There were no rising companies this week. The top three companies that fell this week were Jinke service (- 17.9%), Country Garden Service (- 17.31%) and rongchuang service (- 16.36%).
Real estate market monitoring: new house transaction data from last Saturday to this Friday (2022 / 4 / 162022 / 4 / 22): the transaction area of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 2.0614 million square meters, with a month on month increase of 14.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.6%. The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities was 1514800 square meters, an increase of 5.3% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 31.8%. Last week (2022 / 4 / 112022 / 4 / 17), the land supply and construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 245323 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 38.9% and a month on month increase of 64.85%. The land transaction and construction area was 139056 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.9% and a month on month increase of 41.4%. The supply and transaction volume was positive month on month, and the supply-demand ratio rose to 1.76.
Financing of real estate enterprises: this week (2022 / 4 / 182022 / 4 / 24), the total amount of new bonds issued by real estate enterprises in China was 16.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35% and a month on month increase of 58.11%. In terms of trust issuance, 23 real estate trusts were issued this week, with an issuance scale of 3.859 billion yuan, an increase of 206.27% month on month. The average annual yield is 7.56% and the average term is 1.57 years.
Risk factors: policy risk: the progress of policy relaxation is less than expected. The epidemic situation is not as good as expected, and the risk of the real estate market is not as good as expected.
