Key points:
The installed capacity increased significantly month on month in March, and the impact of the epidemic in China will be more reflected in the data in April
In March 2022, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 21.4gwh (+ 138%), with a significant increase of 56.6% month on month;
From January to March 2022, the cumulative installed capacity is 51.3gwh (+ 121%).
The installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery is highly related to the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China, and the pace is basically the same. The month on month decrease of installed capacity in February is a normal seasonal fluctuation, and the month on month decrease is small. The month on month increase of installed capacity in March is mainly due to the impulse of sales at the end of the season in the car market. The impact of the epidemic in China will be reflected in the data in April.
During the Spring Festival, power battery enterprises do not stop production and rush to prepare goods. It happens that after the Spring Festival, China’s epidemic has been repeated, and vehicle factories have stopped production, so power batteries need to be destocked urgently
The ratio of annual production to installed capacity in 2021 is as high as 1.42. It is normal that the production exceeds the installed capacity. However, from January to February 2022, the production volume deviated significantly from the installed capacity, which was mainly caused by the fact that the power battery enterprises did not stop production and rush to prepare goods during the Spring Festival, as well as Tesla‘s domestic sales and re export. The ratio of installed capacity to production fell to 1.83 in March (2.32 in February), and the gap between production and installed capacity converged. Subsequent de stocking will be the main tone.
Plug in hybrid passenger vehicles have performed well since 2022
From January to March 2022, the cumulative installed capacity was 51.3gwh (+ 121%), of which the cumulative installed capacity of pure electric passenger vehicles was 41.2gwh (+ 112%), and the cumulative installed capacity of plug-in passenger vehicles was 4.7gwh (+ 277%). Since 2022, the installed capacity of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles has increased rapidly, mainly because plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles are less affected by the decline of subsidies. In addition, the Byd Company Limited(002594) dm-i platform technology is advanced, which has also set off an upsurge of plug-in hybrid vehicles. The development of new energy vehicles does not mean full and pure electrification, and plug-in hybrid vehicles should not be regarded as transitional products. Plug in hybrid vehicles have their own customer base, and we are also optimistic about plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Average charge upward fatigue
In the middle of March 2022, the average charging capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 46.6 degrees (43.6 degrees last month). The rise in the average charging capacity was mainly affected by the rise in the installed capacity of pure electric buses and pure electric special vehicles in March. Looking at pure electric passenger vehicles alone, the average charging capacity of pure electric passenger vehicles in China in March 2022 was 48.4 degrees (48.8 degrees last month), but it decreased slightly.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries will be about 215gwh (+ 39%) and the production capacity will be about 323gwh (+ 47%) in 2022, implying that the forecast for the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of 2022 is about 5 million (+ 42%). 2022 will still be a year of booming production and sales of power batteries. The industry will grow rapidly, and the performance of relevant listed companies is worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies of power batteries and lithium battery materials. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks in China; The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently; Competition in the power battery industry has intensified.
