Key investment points:
Zhou viewpoint: at present, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still continuing, the epidemic situation is distributed in many places, and the offline passenger flow is suppressed. With the successive implementation of local relief policies and the introduction of covid-19 specific drugs, the fundamentals of the industry damaged by the epidemic are expected to recover. With the cessation of the epidemic and the recovery of offline passenger flow in the future, the industry will also get out of difficulties and gradually recover. In the medium and long term, the social service sector is basically oriented to the upward trend with great certainty. Therefore, maintain the “recommended” rating of the leisure service industry.
1) tax exemption: the long-term logic is strong. Tax exemption belongs to medium and high-end consumption. The depth and breadth of China’s consumption upgrading are very considerable, and there is broad space for overseas return. We are optimistic about the recovery after the epidemic subsides. In the future, the completion of Haikou duty-free city and the release of supply side stores in the city are highly certain. We recommend paying attention to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; 2) Hotels: the recovery process has been suspended due to the disturbance of the epidemic in the short term, but the performance recovery elasticity is high. The leaders are determined to expand their stores and enjoy the triple growth of upward cycle, epidemic recovery and growth. It is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) s, Huazhu group-s, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) ; 3) Catering: the epidemic has disturbed the recovery and climbing of some restaurants, but some brands with good single store model and strong cost control ability are still expected to expand stores steadily. It is recommended to pay attention to jiumaojiu, and it is recommended to pay attention to the tea of Helens and Naixue; 4) Human resources: the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change the long-term high prosperity trend of flexible employment. In the future, it will continue to benefit from the expansion of enterprise scale + improvement of management ability + rigid rise of human cost + gradual disappearance of demographic dividend, and the increasing trend of flexible employment penetration is still clear; Enabling science and technology to optimize the medium and long-term growth logic of the industry; It is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , foreign service holding and human resources talents; 5) Tourism: it directly benefits from the outbreak of tourism consumption after the epidemic subsides. It is suggested to pay attention to Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , Mount Emei, etc.
Market review: 1) market performance of the sector this week: the social service sector increased by – 4.5% this week, and social services ranked 17th among the 31 Shenwan industries. 2) Year to date performance of the sector: year to date, the social services sector has increased by – 16.2%, and social services ranked 13th among the 31 Shenwan industries. 3) Performance of the sector this week: the weekly change of the social service sector was – 4.5%, and the yield relative to the CSI 300 index was – 0.3%; Among the 10 internal sub sections, catering (+ 0.0%), testing service (- 0.5%) and tax exemption (- 2.9%) performed well.
Industry trends: 1) nearly 200 million duty-free items have been sold in the 11 years since the implementation of the duty-free policy on Hainan outlying islands; 2) In 2021, the operating revenue of star hotels nationwide was 137943 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%; 3) Accor and ennismoreu join hands with Fengyue to build Jo & Joe lifestyle hotel; 4) In the first quarter of 2022, the catering revenue was 1065.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; 5) Online catering sales increased by 20.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022; 6) Honey snow ice city reduced the franchise fee by nearly 200 million yuan and launched a price reduction policy for more than 50% of materials; 7) In the first quarter of 2022, the total number of Chinese tourists decreased by 19% year-on-year, and China’s tourism revenue increased by 4% year-on-year.
Focus on individual stocks: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662)
Risk tip: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the recovery rhythm of the industry; The epidemic situation worsened further, impacting terminal consumption; Focus on the uncertainty of the company’s future performance; Consumption habits and other uncertain effects; Store expansion was slower than expected.
