Summary of this issue:
The wait-and-see mood in the downstream continues, and the price of thermal coal continues to be under pressure. As of April 22, the pithead price of Shaanxi Yulin power lump coal (q6000) was 1050.0 yuan / ton, down 60.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The pit mouth price of sticky coal (including tax) (q5500) in the southern suburb of Datong was 920.0 yuan / ton, down 25.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; Inner Mongolia Dongsheng large clean coal truck sector price (q5500) was 831.0 yuan / ton, down 54.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The suppression of the epidemic has led to insufficient industrial power consumption, low load of thermal power plants, and the price of power coal in the producing area continues to be under pressure.
Port inventory is under pressure. This week, 8010 trains arrived from Qinhuangdao Port Railway, an increase of 117.96% over the previous week; Qinhuangdao Port handled 543000 tons, down 1.09% from the previous week. As of April 22, the inventory of the four major ports around the Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao port, Huanghua port, Caofeidian port and east port of Jingtang Port) was 10.77 million tons (down 650000 tons on a weekly basis), the number of anchor ships was 119.0 (up 18.00 on a weekly basis), the cargo ship ratio (inventory to ship ratio) was 9.1 and the weekly basis decreased by 2.26 The impact of Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) train collision accident is prominent, and the port inventory is under pressure in the short term. With the continuous maintenance of Daqin line, the shipping capacity is restrained, and the port inventory is expected to remain under pressure.
International coal prices continued to run at a high level, and the replenishment of warehouses in coastal provinces was slow. As of April 21, the coal inventory of the eight coastal provinces was 29.321 million tons, up 566000 tons (1.97%) on a weekly basis, the daily consumption was 1.574 million tons, down 79000 tons / day (- 4.78%) on a weekly basis, and the available days were 18.6 days, up 1.20 days on a weekly basis. As of April 22, the market price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (q5500) produced in Shanxi was 1173.0 yuan / ton, up 78.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. International coal price: as of April 20, the FOB spot price of Newcastle newc5500 kcal thermal coal was US $205.2/ton, up US $10.25/ton on a weekly basis; The spot price of ara6000 kcal thermal coal was 350.05 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton on a weekly basis; Richard RB’s FOB spot price of thermal coal was US $275.45/ton, up US $3.2/ton on a weekly basis. As of April 22, the active contract of thermal coal futures increased by 17.0 yuan / ton to 822.0 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week, and the futures discount was 351.0 yuan / ton.
Coke: the impact of the epidemic on shipping continues. As of April 22, 2022, Fenwei CCI Luliang quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3760 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 11.9% and a year-on-year increase of 92.8%. Port index: CCI Rizhao quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 4020 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis, up 14.2% on a monthly basis and 74.8% on a year-on-year basis. At present, the overall production of steel mills is booming, the epidemic situation in some areas has improved, and the transportation has begun to recover, but the overall impact is still relatively serious, and the inter provincial transportation is still difficult.
Coking coal: the downstream demand is strong, and the terminal continues to drop passively. As of April 22, as of April 22, CCI Shanxi low sulfur index was 3440 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis and increased by 165 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; CCI Shanxi high sulfur index 3028 yuan / ton, up 66 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 123 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; Lingshi fat coal index was 2950 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis and increased by 250 yuan / ton on a monthly basis. Due to the shutdown of some coal mines in Xiangning area of Linfen, the coal source continues to be tight, the downstream coke enterprises have strong willingness to purchase, and the coking coal price has been strongly supported.
We believe that at present, we are in the early stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the fundamentals, policies and companies resonate. At this stage, the allocation of coal sector is at the right time. Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, attended the opening ceremony of the 2022 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia in Boao, Hainan on the 21st. With regard to energy supply, he said: “China will vigorously promote the clean utilization of coal based on the basic national condition that the energy structure is dominated by coal, give full play to the role of market mechanism and government regulation, ensure the safety and stability of energy and power supply this year, and steadily and orderly promote carbon peak and carbon neutralization.” The high level once again emphasized the main energy status of coal and the clean utilization of coal. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is a reasonable stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector. Investment rating: we continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
Risk factors: coal mine safety production accidents in key companies; Downstream energy and power consumption departments continue to limit production on a large scale; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
