Key investment points
This week and year to date, the medical index rose by – 7.34% and – 22.42% respectively, and the excess returns relative to the Shanghai index were – 3.47% and – 7.23% respectively; This week, the share prices of medical services, chemical pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical businesses were relatively strong, while the share prices of biological products, APIs and traditional Chinese medicine were weak; This week, the highest growth rate was Shanghai Yizhong Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688091) (+ 36.89%), Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) (+ 26.54%), Zhejiang Cheng Yi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603811) (+ 16.78%), and the highest decline was Zhuhai Hokai Medical Instruments Co.Ltd(300273) (- 38.19%), Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) (- 29.00%), Dali Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603963) (- 28.12%). Performance characteristics of rise and fall: with the market adjustment, the pharmaceutical sector also fell, with the size and market value falling; As the centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicine may be popularized nationwide and the increase in the early stage is large, the adjustment of traditional Chinese medicine is obvious; It is expected that the epidemic situation in Shanghai will improve, and the share prices of medical services and medical America will be relatively strong.
After the inflection point of the epidemic, medical services will achieve restorative growth. The policy base and historical valuation status are particularly suitable for medium – and long-term strategic allocation. In the middle of April 2022, the epidemic situation in Shanghai passed the rising period of the index and appeared an inflection point, and the epidemic situation in the whole country also showed a gentle trend. We expect that with the delayed release of medical demand and the superposition of new demand, medical services will achieve restorative growth after the end of epidemic control. At the same time, mainly due to policy concerns, the dynamic valuation of the medical service sector and leading enterprises has entered a five-year low level. However, we believe that the current policy has bottomed out due to the impact of the expansion of public hospitals in 2021, the changes of private hospitals in the medical system, the centralized purchase of dental implant consumables and the market sentiment brought by the documents circulated after the two sessions. The subsequent release of policies such as medical service price adjustment by provinces and cities is expected to bring marginal improvement signals such as service price increase and expansion of medical insurance coverage. We believe that the current valuation of the medical service sector has been relatively reasonable after a sharp decline, especially for long-term funds and large-scale institutional investors. It is suggested to focus on Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , haijiya medical, Jinxin reproduction, gushengtang, etc. from the medium-term layout.
World’s first PI3K δ/ CK1 ε The listing application of inhibitors was withdrawn, and Junshi vv116 and Pfizer paxlovid carried out head-to-head phase III clinical trial: on April 15, tgtherapeutics announced that it would voluntarily withdraw the biological agent license application / supplementary new drug application of U2 combination ukoniq (umbralisib) combined with ulituximab in the treatment of adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma. The decision to withdraw was based on the recently updated overall survival data of the phase III unit-cll trial. On April 20, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) / Wangshan wangshui vv116 head to head contrast Pfizer paxlovid carried out a multicenter, single blind, randomized and controlled clinical study on the early treatment of mild to severe covid-19 pneumonia.
Specific configuration ideas: 1) generic CXO field: pay attention to Baicheng medicine, Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) etc; 2) Innovative drugs and industrial chain: Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , etc; 3) Biotech innovative drugs: kangfang biology, Xinda biology, Yasheng medicine, etc; 4) API field: Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , etc; 5) Vaccine field: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , etc; 6) Growth hormone field: Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) etc; 7) Medical service fields: Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , haijiya medical, Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , etc; 8) Blood products: Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) , Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) etc; 9) Medical and aesthetic fields: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , etc; 10) Medical device field: Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc; 11) Field of traditional Chinese medicine: Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc.
Risk tip: the progress of industrial transformation and internationalization is not as expected; R & D progress may be less than expected; The price reduction of drugs exceeded expectations; The medical insurance policy was further tightened.
