Industry trend: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87%, the gem index fell 6.66%, and the public utilities and environmental protection index fell 0.48%. Among the environmental protection sectors, the garden sector rose by 5.37%, the solid waste sector fell by 3.98%, and the environmental monitoring sector fell by 6.72%; Among the public utilities sector, the hydropower sector rose 1.16%, the clean energy power generation sector fell 1.18%, and the local power grid sector fell 4.77%.
Key points of this week:
1) public utilities perspective:
The national Standing Committee approved six nuclear power units, and the progress of nuclear power approval is expected to accelerate: on April 20, the executive meeting of the State Council was held, which proposed the orderly development of nuclear power under the premise of strict supervision and ensuring absolute safety. The three new nuclear power unit projects that have been comprehensively evaluated and reviewed and incorporated into the national plan shall be approved. Since the restart of nuclear power approval in 2019, four, four and five units have been approved respectively from 2019 to 2021. This centralized approval of three nuclear power projects with a total of six units is an important measure to implement the “active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power” and sends a positive signal to accelerate the development of nuclear power. Since this year, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Hainan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Liaoning and other places have written nuclear power as the focus of their work into local energy development plans. European countries are also accelerating the start of nuclear power projects. The world has ushered in a new round of nuclear power construction climax, and the space for nuclear power development has been further released. There is room for two rounds of nuclear power business [ + two rounds of recommended price].
Further improve the coal price formation mechanism: Recently, the Inner Mongolia development and Reform Commission issued the implementation plan on further improving the coal price formation mechanism, which pointed out that Inner Mongolia, as one of the national core coal supply bases, will strictly implement the state to further improve the coal market price formation mechanism and guide the coal price to operate within a reasonable range. Among them, the medium and long-term transaction price of 5500 kcal coal in Mengxi area is set at 260460 yuan / ton; The reasonable range of 3500 kcal coal in eastern Mongolia is 200300 yuan / ton. The implementation plan will be implemented from May 1. With the continuous promotion of a number of coal production increase, supply guarantee and price limit policies since 2022 and the arrival of the off-season of superimposed coal demand, coal prices have begun to enter the downward channel since mid March. In the future, coal prices are expected to stabilize within a reasonable range, which is good for thermal power transformation new energy enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to China’s thermal power transformation new energy leader [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ].
The 14th five year plan for energy development in Guizhou Province is released, and it is estimated that the installed capacity will increase by 25gw: Recently, the Energy Bureau of Guizhou Province issued the 14th five year plan for the development of new and renewable energy in Guizhou Province, which requires that the installed capacity of new and renewable energy will reach 65.46gw by 2025, including 22.81gw of hydropower, 10.8gw of wind power and 31gw of photovoltaic. During the 14th five year plan, the photovoltaic capacity of wind power will increase by 25.43gw, including 5GW of wind power PV 20.43gw. All provinces have successively issued the energy development plan of the 14th five year plan, and the certainty of new energy production during the 14th Five Year Plan period has been further improved.
With the advent of the off-season, the European gas price has declined, but the supply and demand of natural gas is still tight, and the price is expected to remain high and volatile. Recently, after Russia announced that the purchase of Russian natural gas by “unfriendly countries” would be settled in rubles, the EU agreed for the first time that natural gas companies would use rubles to buy Russian natural gas without violating sanctions. Since April, the Dutch TTF price index has fallen significantly from the highest point, mainly due to the off-season of natural gas demand, but the gas price is still high compared with the same period last year. Although the possibility of Russian natural gas supply interruption is reduced, the overall natural gas supply and demand in Europe is still tight, and the European natural gas price is expected to remain high in the peak season. At present, the huge difference in overseas natural gas prices brings international trade opportunities. It is recommended to focus on the [ Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ] with long-term layout of international natural gas trade, Zhoushan LNG terminal and the whole natural gas industry chain.
2) viewpoint of environmental protection:
Fighting the tough battle of pollution prevention and control in depth: Recently, Shandong and Sichuan provinces issued several measures for Shandong Province to implement the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on fighting the tough battle of pollution prevention and control in depth and the implementation opinions on fighting the tough battle of pollution prevention and control in depth (Draft for comments). Shandong Province aims to achieve the national goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 2025; The proportion of water bodies with excellent water quality in the state controlled section of surface water reached 69.9%, and all water bodies with inferior class V were eliminated; The proportion of areas with excellent water quality in coastal waters is stable, reaching 92%; Heavily polluted weather and urban black and smelly water bodies have been basically eliminated, the risk of soil pollution has been effectively controlled, and the treatment capacity of solid waste and new pollutants has been significantly enhanced. Sichuan Province aims to reach 97.5% of water bodies above class III in surface water by 2025; The classification and recycling rate of municipal solid waste above the prefecture level has reached more than 35%. The environmental protection sector recommends the main business of waste incineration power generation to enter the [ Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) ] of new energy lithium battery recycling and open up performance growth space.
Market information tracking:
1) carbon market tracking: this week, the total turnover of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 01600 tons, with a total turnover of 9600 yuan. As of this week, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 189542200 tons, with a cumulative turnover of 8.238 billion yuan. From the perspective of regional market, Guangdong has the highest trading volume of carbon emission rights, with 765300 tons, while Tianjin and Beijing have no trading volume this week. In terms of the average transaction price of carbon emissions, the highest average transaction price is 59.50 yuan / ton in Shanghai market and the lowest is 7.18 yuan / ton in Shenzhen market.
2) natural gas price tracking: China’s LNG price fluctuates slightly. According to the data released by Zhuo Chuang information, the weekly average transaction price of national LNG ex factory this week was 771699 yuan / ton, up 26.01 yuan / ton month on month, or 0.34%; Among them, the weekly average ex factory price of the terminal was 846047 yuan / ton, down 209.53 yuan / ton or 2.42% month on month; The average weekly ex factory price of the factory was 715285 yuan / ton, up 57.67 yuan / ton month on month, or 0.81%.
3) coal market price tracking: coal prices continued to decline this week: according to the data released by the coal resources network, the cci5500 comprehensive price index this week was 792 yuan / ton, unchanged month on week. From the point of origin, Yulin 5800 kcal index was 985 yuan, with a decrease of 76 yuan on a weekly basis 6 Hitevision Co.Ltd(002955) 500 kcal index was 813 yuan, with a week-on-week decrease of 102 yuan; Datong 5500 kcal index was 965 yuan, down 42 yuan on a weekly basis. With the slowdown of coal mine shipments caused by epidemic control and other factors, coal prices were further reduced.
Portfolio
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 803+ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) + China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) + Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) + Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034)
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project operation progress is less than expected, the power coal price rises, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, and the electricity price is at risk of reduction.
