Core view
Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle this week, the sectors of service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , small household appliances, white household appliances, black household appliances and kitchen appliances performed relatively strongly. This week, the CSI 300 index fell by 4.19%. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, the service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , small household appliances rose by 1.04% and 0.27% respectively, while the white household appliances, black household appliances and kitchen appliances fell by 1.91%, 2.40% and 2.72% respectively, outperforming the market by 5.23pct, 4.46pct, 2.28pct, 1.79pct and 1.47pct respectively; Furniture, lighting and electrician sectors fell by 5.54% and 5.12% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 1.35pct and 0.93pct respectively.
Domestic sales: in March, the sales area and completed area of new houses continued to grow negatively year-on-year. (1) Price of upstream raw materials: this week, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture fell, the price of copper and aluminum rose, the price of stainless steel fell, and the price of plastic raw materials fell. (2) China's real estate demand: in March 2022, the sales area and completed area of new houses continued to increase negatively year-on-year; In March 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to grow negatively year-on-year. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in March 2022, the national residential sales area decreased by 23.2% and the completed area decreased by 15.3% year-on-year; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in March 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China's top 10 cities was 41900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 47%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses nationwide was about 38000 in February 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%. (3) Retail tracking: in March, the retail sales of furniture continued to increase negatively year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances turned to negative year-on-year growth. In terms of sub categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, the online retail sales of dishwashers and integrated stoves increased by 10.6% and 12.2% year-on-year respectively in March 2022, and the online sales of cigarette stoves, kitchen appliances, cleaning appliances and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) decreased by 7.3%, 29.5%, 18.7% and 22.9% year-on-year respectively.
Export: in March 2022, the sales of existing homes in the United States continued to grow negatively year-on-year. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in March, the sales volume of existing homes in the United States decreased by 4% year-on-year, with a continuous negative growth. The new construction volume of private houses increased by 4% year-on-year (24% year-on-year in February), and the growth rate narrowed. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in March 2022, the export volume of furniture turned to positive year-on-year growth (7%), and the export volume of household appliances continued to negative year-on-year growth (- 9%). In terms of sub categories, according to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in March 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of export volume of range hood, induction cooker, electric frying pan, electric kettle and toaster was significantly higher than that in February 2022, but the year-on-year growth rate of export volume of air conditioner, microwave oven, washing machine, electric fan, electric coffee machine and other categories fell to varying degrees. The year-on-year growth rate of the export volume of 2022q1 electric kettle was higher than that of 2021q4, and the year-on-year growth rate of the export volume of other categories decreased.
Investment proposal and investment object
It is suggested to select the real estate post cycle leader that builds a solid foundation in emerging channels and category integration. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized household leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ( Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ( Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) ( Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) , overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ( Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , not rated), software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ( Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , not rated); Benefiting from the high growth in emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, which have benefited from the high growth in emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances. It is suggested to focus on China's sweeping the floor Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) \ \ Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) ( Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) , overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
