Key investment points:
Nuclear power: six nuclear power units have been approved to land, and nuclear power construction is expected to develop rapidly in the middle and late 14th Five Year Plan period
1) six nuclear power units are approved for landing. According to the first financial report, the national Standing Committee approved three new nuclear power unit projects (a total of six units, all of which are third-generation nuclear power technology), which is an important measure to implement the "active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power". According to the prediction of China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, the installed capacity of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) in transportation will reach 70 million KW and 120 million KW by 2025 and 2030. Based on this goal, assuming that the construction period of nuclear power units is 5 years and the average capacity of a single unit is 1.1 million KW, China needs to approve 7-8 units per year from 2022 to 2025. In the context of double carbon, new energy power will be connected to the grid on a large scale, and the importance of nuclear power as a high-quality base load energy is further highlighted.
2) China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) construction capacity is in a leading position in the world, and nuclear power construction is expected to usher in rapid development in the middle and late period of the 14th five year plan. From the perspective of construction cost, the construction cost of China's third-generation nuclear power units is about 16000 yuan / kW, which is lower than the foreign 5000 US dollars / kW (about 32500 yuan / kW). With the subsequent batch construction, the cost is expected to be further reduced. In terms of technology, China has become one of the few countries that independently master the third-generation nuclear power technology, and has the conditions for independent, batch and large-scale construction of the third-generation nuclear power. The high temperature gas cooled reactor technology in the fourth generation technology is the world leader. The No. 1 reactor of Huaneng Shidaowan project was connected to the grid on December 20, 2021. According to the above calculation of 7 units approved per year and the construction cost of 16000 yuan / kW, the China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) annual construction investment from 2022 to 2025 is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, and the nuclear power construction is expected to usher in rapid development in the middle and late period of the 14th five year plan and stimulate the demand for localization of core equipment related to the industrial chain.
Coal: the performance rate of coal production, supply and demand increased, and the profit of thermal power in the second quarter is expected to improve
1) the national Standing Committee once again proposed to "guide the coal price to operate within a reasonable range". The coal price supervision is becoming stricter, and the spot price is expected to move down. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, under the background of strengthening coal production and supply in China in the first quarter, China's raw coal output was 1.084 billion tons in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, of which 396 million tons of raw coal were produced in March, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with a growth rate of 4.5pct higher than that from January to February. Following the national development and Reform Commission in March, the national Standing Committee once again proposed to add 300 million tons of coal capacity this year, which is expected to further improve the supply and demand pattern of coal. Looking forward to the second quarter, the periodic decline in the demand for thermal coal after the heating period is inevitable, the subsequent marginal easing of supply and demand is expected, and the spot price of coal is expected to move down.
2) we are optimistic about the follow-up decline of coal price + the improvement of the performance rate of long-term cooperation. According to our calculation, for every 10% increase of the proportion of long-term cooperation, the cost of coal-fired kwh will decrease by about 0.02 yuan / kWh. Assuming that the spot price of thermal coal in the second quarter is 1300 yuan / ton and the long-term cooperative price is 720 yuan / ton, the average coal consumption for power supply is 307g / kWh, and the kWh cost is 0.3946 yuan / kWh under the condition of 50% long-term cooperative performance rate. When the long-term cooperative performance rate is increased from 50% to 100%, the kWh cost is expected to drop to 0.2813 yuan / kWh. In the second quarter of 2022, it is assumed that the power generation in the second quarter of the second quarter of 2022 will be the same as the same period last year in the same period of the same period last year in the same period of the second quarter of 2022. After considering the tax rate and minority shareholders' profit and loss, the second quarter of the second quarter of the second quarter, the second quarter of the second quarter of the second quarter of 2022, and the tax rate and the minority shareholders' profit and loss, if the long-term agreement ratio increases by 10% after the long-term agreement ratio increases by 10%, such as Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 27 \ \rmb155 million and RMB 126 million.
Investment suggestion: in terms of industry, 6 nuclear power units have been approved for landing. Nuclear power is a high-quality base load energy, and the development of nuclear power industry is highly deterministic under the background of carbon neutrality; Under the regulatory constraints of increasing coal production and supply and strong coal price, we are optimistic about the month on month improvement of the profits of thermal power enterprises in the second quarter. Maintain the industry "recommended rating". In terms of individual stocks, the nuclear power sector recommends China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , the leader of nuclear power operation, and it is recommended to pay attention to Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) ; Nuclear industry construction leader China Nuclear Engineering & Construction Corporation Limited(601611) ; Equipment manufacturers Harbin Electric Corporation Jiamusi Electric Machine Co.Ltd(000922) , Suzhou Hailu Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002255) , Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) ; For thermal power sector, it is recommended to recommend Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , and it is recommended to pay attention to the thermal power targets that are expected to improve profits Datang International Power Generation Co.Ltd(601991) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , China Resources Power, China Power, Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) .
Risk warning: focus on the improvement of the company's performance as expected; Risk of continuous rise in coal prices; Electricity price decline risk; Risk of policy change; The construction of nuclear power projects is not advancing as expected; Technological progress is less than expected.
