Key investment points:
Market review: this week, the Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological sector index fell by 7.3%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.2%. The pharmaceutical sector ranked 28th in the Shenwan industry classification. Individual stocks with more gains in the early stage showed a correction, and the pharmaceutical segment fell collectively this week; The top five increases in medicine were Shanghai Yizhong Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688091) (+ 36.9%), Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) (+ 26.5%), Zhejiang Cheng Yi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603811) (+ 16.8%), Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) (+ 12.2%), Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited(000756) (+ 10.0%).
Industry policies and trends: 1) CDE released the guiding principles for the collection of adverse reaction data in the instructions of antitumor drugs: on April 19, CDE released the guiding principles to guide the safe and rational use of drugs. With the progress of antitumor drug research and development, more and more studies show that a drug can be applied to different tumor species, different stages or populations of the same tumor species, and can also be combined with drugs with different action mechanisms; 2) Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) : covid-19, the first domestic oral drug, launched a new phase III clinical trial, challenging Pfizer head-to-head. In April 19th, VV116 COVID-19 oral medicine developed by Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) and Wang Shan Shui medicine and other agencies launched a phase III clinical trial of the first pair of Pfizer Paxlovid to treat mild to moderate New Coronavirus pneumonia.
Shanghai epidemic tracking summary: by distinguishing the new cases in Shanghai, we can find the problems found in the recent investigation of risk groups
The number of newly confirmed and asymptomatic infections is decreasing, that is, most of the cases come from isolated control areas. On the whole, the epidemic situation is controllable. In addition, as the shelter hospital was gradually put into use and a large number of patients began to receive patients some time ago, we judge that the number of discharged patients will maintain a relatively high level every day, and the number of existing patients in Shanghai will continue to decrease, waiting for the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai.
Investment strategy and allocation ideas: this week, the Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological sector index decreased by 7.3%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.2%, and the pharmaceutical sector ranked 28th in the Shenwan industry classification. According to the epidemic data of Shanghai in the past two weeks, there is a dawn of the epidemic in Shanghai and the resumption of work and production is being promoted. At the same time, with the warmer weather, we judge that China’s current round of epidemic prevention and control is about to usher in the end stage. Under the principle of “dynamic clearing”, we have to pay attention to both epidemic prevention and resumption of production. At the same time, according to the first quarterly report of the fund disclosed recently, the pharmaceutical obtained the active partial stock fund to increase its position against the market, which is still a low allocation range compared with history. Although the market has been greatly adjusted, the cost performance of pharmaceutical allocation is still high. With the market correction, it can strategically increase its position in medicine. The key points are as follows: I. epidemic prevention and control line: covid-19 oral drugs are urgently needed. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1 Pfizer covid-19 small molecule industrial chain: 1) MPP authorized enterprises: Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) and Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) etc; 2) Cdmo: Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , etc; 3) Intermediates: Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) etc; 2. Domestic covid-19 oral small molecule, key points: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) developed vv116, which has launched the global multi center phase III and China Pfizer drug head-to-head test; 2、 Under the expectation of resumption of production, consumer medical care deserves attention: after the current round of epidemic situation is unsealed, the demand for medical consumption will recover rapidly, focusing on Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , he’s Ophthalmology, etc. 3、 Continue to be optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine sector: the short-term correction of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is significant, and there is no change in fundamentals and policies. Some sectors and companies have strong performance certainty, focusing on: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Chinese traditional medicine, Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) and Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) . 4、 Adhere to performance as the king, and pay attention to high growth companies that will disclose Q1 performance: such as Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) .
Portfolio this week: it is recommended to focus on Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , he Ophthalmology, Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Baicheng medicine, Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , etc.
April portfolio: it is recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) and Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) .
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected; The performance of listed companies is less than expected; Market competition intensifies risks.
