Zhou's view: the decline of the stock market dragged down the first quarterly report, and the long-term impact of personal pension is far-reaching
In the short term, capital market pricing pays more attention to the impact of the epidemic. From the companies that have disclosed the first quarter report or the first quarter performance express and forecast, under the background of the sharp decline of the stock market in the first quarter, the first quarter report of the non bank financial industry is relatively lower than expected and is greatly disturbed by the stock market as a whole. At present, we are relatively optimistic about Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , which has steady growth in the first quarter, high dividend yield and interest rate spread is expected to expand quarter by quarter. This week, the top-level personal pension plan was implemented. In the short term, the tax preference is limited, which has little impact on the profitability of financial institutions. In the long run, because the account itself has the characteristics of long-term locking and strong inclusiveness, and the account value is high, the pension market will be a must for financial institutions. From the perspective of the situation in the United States, the channel side has the right to speak in the personal pension market. We expect that Chinese commercial banks (Mastering capital account + full product type sales qualification) and flow subjects have comparative advantages, and head product side companies such as public funds will directly benefit.
Brokerage: personal pension system strengthens the logic of wealth management
(1) this week, all funds issued 31.4 billion new shares, an increase of 21.9 billion month on month, and the heat of debt base has been repaired; This week, the share of shares + mixed new issues was 3 billion, still at a low level; As of April 24, the scale of newly issued shares + mixed funds in April was 14.9 billion, which further decreased the market heat in April compared with the new issuance of 41.5 billion in March. (2) The top-level design scheme of individual pension was officially released, which clearly takes the account system as the main body and the preferential tax policy as the encouragement. The top-level plan basically meets the market expectation, and the payment ceiling of 12000 yuan is slightly lower than our expectation. Through scenario calculation, the tax saving amount accounts for less than 1% of residents' annual after tax income, and the effect of tax saving is relatively limited. In the long run, the personal pension system will strengthen the long logic of wealth management, and the head companies at the channel end and product end will benefit more obviously. (3) Affected by the sharp decline in the stock market, both traditional securities companies and China stock market news, the leader of Internet wealth management, reported relatively lower than expected performance in the first quarter. It is expected that passive directional positions such as follow-up investment, direct investment, IPO underwriting and fund outsourcing investment will bring great pressure to the 1 quarterly report of securities companies; China stock market news was also negatively affected by the decline in sales of retail end funds and the decline in proprietary return. At present, the valuation of the sector is at an all-time low and the long-term logic of the industry is still. China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares) are recommended.
Insurance: the sharp decline of the stock market may bring significant pressure on the net profit in the first quarter
(1) from the premium data, we expect that the new life insurance policies in the first quarter will continue to be under pressure. The auto insurance premium of PICC Property Insurance in March is + 4.6% year-on-year. It is expected that the local epidemic will bring some suppression to the sales of new cars. The sharp decline in the stock market in the first quarter also put pressure on the net profit of listed insurance companies in the first quarter. (2) Throughout the year, the recovery of the prosperity of property insurance is still worthy of attention, and the subject of benefit is China property insurance; At present, life insurance is at the bottom of valuation, and the pessimistic expectations on the liability side and asset side have responded fully. However, the impact of the epidemic, the macroeconomic prosperity and the growth rate of NBV in the process of transformation are still uncertain. Recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has a large space for asset side repair, recommend China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which is leading in transformation, and benefit the target China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Combination of beneficial objects
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) ;
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares);
Insurance: China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
