Review of market and sector trends: last week, the media sector index fell 5.28%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.12%, and the gem index fell 6.66%. The top three gainers of the sector: Lugang culture (+ 9.01%), Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (+ 3.30%), Beijing Gehua Catv Network Co.Ltd(600037) (+ 2.39%); The top three declines in the sector: Inly Media Co.Ltd(603598) (- 16.99%), Fuchun Technology Co.Ltd(300299) (- 16.47%), Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) (- 13.23%). Last week, the NASDAQ China technology index fell 9.39% and the Hang Seng China enterprise index fell 5.59%.
Zhou Du’s view: the epidemic situation is repeated, the economy is under pressure, and the market decline reflects the market’s concern. On April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the total retail sales of social consumer goods (social zero data) in Q1 and March. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Q1 was about 10.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; Online retail sales reached 3.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. In March, the epidemic recurred at many points. The total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. Following the negative growth of a single month in August 2020, the retail sales of online goods and services was 1.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; Recently, the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places has been effectively controlled. With the improvement of the epidemic situation in the later stage, we have superimposed various relief policies, retail platforms [meituan, jd.com, Alibaba, pinduoduo], advertising media leaders [Focus] and other repair opportunities.
Recently, Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the Boao Forum for Asia that the overall negotiation with the U.S. negotiation team was smooth, and it is expected that the details of PCAOB compliance will be gradually implemented in the future. On April 22, he learned that the Dual Major listing in Hong Kong was completed, and paid attention to the progress of key Chinese companies listed in the United States, including [Ali, pinduoduo, JD, Bili, futu], etc.
After the recurrence of the game version number, it will return to normality. As the first game after the recurrence of the version number, heart “party star” is expected to be officially launched at 11:00 on April 23. Follow up attention will be paid to the game companies that effectively support the fundamentals after the launch of new products [Tencent, Netease, Panax notoginseng, BiliBili, Xindong company, G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Fuchun], etc. On April 23 [ G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ] released the results, with 22q1 revenue of 1.229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.98% and a month on month increase of 8.38%, realizing a net profit attributable to the parent company of 350 million yuan. The G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) key agent product “Obi Island: dream country” has opened IOS reservation, and the omni channel payment test was opened on April 28.
Key tips: 1) relatively high boom track, financial technology [China stock market news (Q1 revenue of RMB 3.196 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.61%, net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 2.171 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.63%)]; Short video, [Kwai, byte]; Chinese video [BiliBili (station B responded to the layoffs of the live broadcasting department and said the business was in good condition)]; Technology [Xiaomi, baidu]; Long video [iqiyi, mango (soundtrack. Hong Kong Music season set on April 24)]; Cultural media [ Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited(601928) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2.457 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.98%), Chinese Universe Publishing And Media Group Co.Ltd(600373) , Ireader Technology Co.Ltd(603533) (the revenue in 2021 was 2.071 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.49%)], etc.
2) in the game sector, focus on the rhythm and performance of the new game after the restart of the version number in the short term, and focus on the combination of meta universe in the medium term. Focus on the head [Tencent, Netease], China [Panax notoginseng, perfectness, G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) (Q1 achieved revenue of 1.229 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 9.98%; the agent product “Obi Island: a country of dreams” has opened IOS reservation), Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) , giant, Fuchun, yao ji, Baotong, Caesar, Huali, Xinghui, Kunlun, Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network Technology Co.Ltd(603258) ], Hong Kong stocks [heart, celadon, China Mobile Games, IgG, ZuLong, chizi city], etc, VR technology [Silk Road, Hengxin, Jiachuang], etc.
3) the film section focuses on post epidemic repair opportunities under the progress of epidemic prevention and control. Focus on animation film leader [light (expected net profit loss of 310360 million yuan due to parent)], cinema and content compound leader [Wanda], Internet platform [cat’s eye], entertainment broker [Lehua entertainment], etc.
4) generation Z and community, maintaining high growth and high stickiness. Pay attention to [Bili], tide play [bubble mart, Chuang Meng, aofei], etc; Online reading and IP operation [reading], online Q & a community [Zhihu (completed the dual main listing in Hong Kong on April 22)], online music [Netease cloud], etc.
5) Kwai tiktok and the industrial chain, focusing on the business platform [Jingdong (415 Shopping Festival collection, digital, mother and infant sales doubled) growth, and many spells, Ali (ant group and 2C2P reached a strategic investment depth cooperation)] and live platform [shake voice, fast hand], industry chain [ Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) , Yao Ji, gravity], marketing technology, etc., bytes, benefits, etc. [ Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) , Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) ]; Community retail [meituan, daily Youxian, dingdong], etc; Wechat ecological e-commerce SaaS [youzan, Weimeng].
Risk warning: epidemic impact, economic and political environment risk, regulatory uncertainty, goodwill impairment risk
