Ahead of government investment, the infrastructure industry chain may continue to be the main focus of “steady growth”
On Monday (April 18), the National Bureau of statistics released economic data for the first quarter: GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was about 10.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of + 9.3%, down 2.9pct from the previous value. GDP growth was 5.5% lower than the annual target, mainly because the epidemic inhibited economic activities, and the decline basically appeared in March. In March, the monthly fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was about 5.41 trillion, a year-on-year increase of + 7.1%, down nearly 5.1pct from the previous value. In terms of infrastructure construction, it continued to strengthen, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.8% in March, significantly higher than the previous value, with a month on month increase of + 0.6%, mainly due to the centralized issuance of local special bonds, and the process was significantly accelerated. Since December 2021, the Ministry of finance has issued to local governments in advance the new special debt of 1.46 trillion in 2022, and the remaining amount has been issued at the end of March. By the end of March, all localities had issued a total of 1.25 trillion yuan of special bonds, accounting for 86% of the quota issued in advance. The operating rate of supporting projects reached 75%, mainly invested in municipal and industrial park construction, social undertakings, transportation and other fields. The capital construction force has narrowed the decline in the output of crude steel, cement and other products. In Q1, the national cumulative cement output was 387 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of – 12.1%, a decrease of 5.7 PCT compared with that from January to February. In the context of repeated short-term epidemics and weak real estate, infrastructure investment is significantly ahead of schedule, or will continue to become the main starting point of “stable growth” and continue to play a counter cyclical regulatory role. The direction of the infrastructure industry chain is clear, the demand is uncertain, and the beneficiary objects are: Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) . In terms of real estate: in Q1, the national investment in real estate development was 2.78 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.7%. The growth rate decreased by 3PCT compared with January February, lower than 24.9pct in the same period in 2021; The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8.063 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 1%, and a single month in March was – 21.5%; The new construction area of houses was 298 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 17.5%, an increase of 5.3 PCT compared with that from January to February; The completed housing area was 170 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 11.5%, and a single month in March was a year-on-year increase of – 15.5%. Affected by the impact of the epidemic, the demand side is still weak, and the real estate fundamentals were weak in March. However, the central government and various ministries and commissions have repeatedly released stability maintenance signals and gradually relaxed real estate policies in many places, including reducing the proportion of down payment and providing financial support for real estate enterprises. More counter cyclical and cross cyclical regulatory policies are expected to be introduced one after another to help credit expansion. Real estate regulation may be further relaxed to ensure the release of reasonable housing demand. Consumer building materials with greater flexibility under the expected improvement of real estate benefit from: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , China Liansu. In the context of “double carbon”, the low-carbon transformation of energy is the main line of certainty, and carbon fiber, photovoltaic glass and glass fiber will continue to benefit from the growth of demand. Beneficiary: carbon fiber leading: Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ; Photovoltaic glass Faucet: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; Glass fiber Faucet: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
Market review this week
This week (April 18-april 22, 2022), the building materials index fell 6.82%, the CSI 300 index fell 4.19%, and the building materials index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.63pct. In the past three months, the CSI 300 index fell by 16.16%, and the building materials index fell by 16.64%. The building materials sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.48pct. Over the past year, the CSI 300 index fell by 20.96%, the building materials index fell by 21.25%, and the building materials sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.29pct.
Plate data tracking
Cement: as of April 22, the national p.o42 5. The average price of bulk cement was 471.68 yuan / ton, up 0.64% month on month; The national clinker storage capacity ratio was 64.39%, with a month on month increase of 0.38%; The price difference between cement and coal was 319.19 yuan / ton, down 0.6% month on month.
Glass: as of April 22, the national average spot price of float glass was 205223 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.58 yuan / ton, or 0.17%; The average price of photovoltaic glass was 172.4 yuan / weight box, up 0.36% month on month; Float glass inventory was 61.82 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.24 million weight boxes, or 3.76%; The price difference of float glass soda ash petroleum coke was 14.49 yuan / weight box, down 5.89% month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash heavy oil was 27.93 yuan / weight box, down 4.52% month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash natural gas was 37.97 yuan / weight box, down 1.77% month on month; The price difference of photovoltaic glass soda ash natural gas was 107.79 yuan / weight box, which was basically the same month on month.
Glass fiber: as of April 22, the mainstream ex factory price of alkali free 2400 winding direct yarn was Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited(600064) 50 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex jet ply yarn is 950010000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex SMC ply yarn was 84008800 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. The transaction price of ring yarn varies from 9 Anhui Huamao Textile Company Limited(000850) 0 yuan to 85008500 yuan in the mainstream.
Carbon fiber: as of April 22, the average price of small tow carbon fiber in China was 225 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The average price of large tow carbon fiber in China was 145 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The national carbon fiber inventory was 11 tons, unchanged month on month; The operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises was 64.89%, with a month on month decrease of 0.12%; The gross profit of carbon fiber was 5746667 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; Supply and demand mismatch risk; Downside risks of economic growth; China’s monetary and real estate policies are becoming stricter; China’s credit is lower than expected
