Key investment points:
The performance of medicine is weaker than that of this week
Shenwan pharmaceutical biological index fell 7.34%, and the overall performance was weaker than the market. Among them, the medical service sub industry fell by 5.59%, the chemical pharmaceutical sub industry fell by 6.71%, the pharmaceutical business sub industry fell by 7.71%, the medical device sub industry fell by 8.13%, the traditional Chinese medicine sub industry fell by 8.3%, and the biological products sub industry fell by 8.83%.
Special topic of this week: progress of covid-19 drug research and development in China
In terms of covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs, China only approved Pfizer’s covid-19 drug paxlovid, priced at 2300 yuan / course of treatment. Considering the affordability and supply safety, we still need domestic covid-19 drugs. At present, the signal pathway of domestic covid-19 drug research and development mainly focuses on the inhibition process of 3CL protease and RNA dependent RNA polymerase. There are also other principle designs, which are relatively rich. Azvudine has completed phase III clinical trial and is expected to disclose data in the near future. It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of domestic covid-19 drugs.
Outlook for next week: the performance is still the core, focusing on the epidemic desensitization sector. Affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomic downward pressure and repeated epidemic, the overall trading volume and amount of the pharmaceutical industry continue to shrink. Judging from the results of the annual report and the first quarter report released at present, some sectors of the pharmaceutical industry still show a steady growth trend. As covid-19 epidemic is still the main contradiction at present, in the short term, we still suggest paying attention to covid-19 related industrial chains, including covid-19 vaccine, covid-19 drug research and development progress, covid-19 testing industrial chain and other companies. In the medium term, we suggest paying attention to the sustained and steady growth of vaccines, CXO and the new medical infrastructure, medical services and consumer medical sectors recovering after the epidemic.
Monthly gold shares in April
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ): a multi category, multi market and multi-level comprehensive instrument leader, after covid-19, it will enjoy the acceleration of global layout and the business cycle of China’s new infrastructure, and its performance can grow continuously and stably. The company has adjusted to the bottom range of multi-year valuation, corresponding to the closing price on April 22. The valuations from 2022 to 2023 are 35x and 28x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ( Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ): HPV vaccine batch issuance has increased steadily, children’s vaccination is expected to recover gradually, covid-19 vaccine booster needle continues, sequential vaccination is implemented, and it is expected to become a stable cash flow in the future; The company has strong marketing capabilities and rich independent vaccine R & D pipelines. Wechat has started to work this year, and the largest employee stock ownership plan is deeply bound to core employees. Corresponding to the closing price on April 22, the valuations from 2022 to 2023 are 25X and 20x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk of changes in national epidemic prevention and control policies; Trade friction exceeded expectations; Policy risk
