\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 94 Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) )
Event: Recently, the company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.31%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 205 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.91%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 774 million yuan, an increase of 3.31% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 42 million yuan, an increase of 27.41%.
Comments:
Affected by the epidemic and geographical conflict, Q1's profitability has improved. On the revenue side, the company's revenue in 2021 was 3.710 billion yuan, an increase of 62.31% at the same time, and the Q1 revenue in 2022 was 774 million yuan; Quarterly, the revenue growth rates of 2021q1-q4 and 2022q1 were 122.72%, 73.89%, 75.61%, 24.82% and 3.31% respectively. Affected by the epidemic, China's supply chain has been blocked recently, and the order delivery has been delayed due to the geographical conflict in Europe; On the profit side, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 205 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 30.91% at the same time, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 42 million yuan in 2022q1. The growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q1-q4 and 2022q1 were 43.69%, 40.95%, 75.47%, - 5.48% and 27.41% respectively. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 12.63% and the net profit margin was 5.53%, a decrease of 1.33 PCT at the same time, mainly due to the increase of sea freight. In 2022q1, the net interest rate was 5.49%, with an increase of 1.04pct, and the profitability rebounded.
ODM's main business is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate and continue to expand overseas customers. In 2021, the company's bicycle ODM business revenue was 2.258 billion yuan, accounting for 60.87% of the revenue, an increase of 72.73% at the same time. In 2021, the overseas epidemic was repeated, and the demand for bicycles, as a commuting and fitness tool, was good. In 2021, China's bicycle export volume was 69.26 million, an increase of 14.9%, and the bicycle export volume was US $5.108 billion, an increase of 40.0%, with a significant recovery in growth. Since the beginning of this year, foreign countries have started to return to work in an orderly manner, but the epidemic has tended to normalize. Bicycles still have strong demand toughness with fitness and commuting functions. We expect the demand of the industry to increase this year. In addition, the company has strong competitive advantages in the field of bicycle ODM and outstanding comprehensive advantages in supply chain management, R & D and design. It is expected to continue to expand more overseas customers and achieve long-term and rapid growth.
Independent brands and electric bicycle business have made steady efforts, and there is a large space for long-term growth. In 2021, the company's revenue from OBM business (including self operated channels of independent brand e-commerce) was 466 million yuan, an increase of 31.02% and a decrease of 14.51 PCT, mainly due to the sharp rise in sea freight in 2021 and the pressure on the profit of OBM business. Benefiting from the long-term cultivation of ODM business, the company has strong independent R & D and cost control capabilities, and has rich product lines. The operation of independent brands in cross-border e-commerce has achieved rapid success. The company's independent brand business will continue to expand channels and product lines, with large long-term growth space. The company's revenue from electric bicycle business in 2021 was 357 million yuan, an increase of 101.06%. Benefiting from the increasing trend of electric bicycle penetration in Europe and America, the company's electric bicycle business is expected to continue to maintain high growth. Based on the above, we believe that "one basic sector and two growth points" will drive the company to achieve high growth in the long term.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 309 million yuan, 461 million yuan and 609 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS are 1.59 yuan / share, 2.37 yuan / share and 3.14 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to 17 times, 12 times and 9 times of the current share price PE respectively. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the risk of changes in economic environment and trade policies, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the risk of sudden and disastrous events such as repeated epidemics, the risk of intensified market competition, the risk of price fluctuations of raw materials, etc.
