\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 41 Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) )
Core view
Event: the company announced its performance in 2021: during the reporting period, the operating revenue was 1.29 billion yuan (+ 24.44%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 830 million yuan (+ 103.82%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan (+ 37.08%). In addition, the company also announced 1q22 performance: operating revenue of 270 million yuan (+ 12.48%), net profit attributable to parent company of 140 million yuan (+ 34.60%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 120 million yuan (+ 24.60%). The release of production capacity accelerates the performance improvement in 2021, and the entry of players leads to an increase in penetration. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company in 2021 are 93.5% (- 0.43pp) and 43.4% (+ 4pp) respectively, of which the sales expense rate is 31.9% (- 3.8pp), and other expenses remain stable. The company's performance is in line with expectations. The increase of sales scale leads to the improvement of marginal sales cost and significant enhancement of profitability. Quarter by quarter, the company achieved revenue of RMB 240 million, RMB 320 million, RMB 230 million and RMB 500 million (+ 51%, + 8.5%, - 38.3%, + 135.9%) in Q1-Q4 of 2021, and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 150 million, RMB 330 million and RMB 250 million (+ 54.9%, + 28.7%, + 105.7%, + 282.3%). Among them, the growth rate of 4q21 revenue and parent net profit increased significantly, mainly because the company completed the technical transformation of the second workshop of viral vaccine in May 2021, 4q21 was officially put into operation, and the production capacity of human diploid crazy seedlings, the core variety, was expanded by 2 million. In 2021, the company issued 4.795 million batches of human diploid wild seedlings, with a year-on-year increase of 29.47%. Superimposed on the rising price of human diploid wild seedlings, the company drove the rapid growth of performance. 1q22's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company reached 270 million yuan (+ 12.48%) and 140 million yuan (+ 34.60%) respectively. Affected by the national epidemic and the high base of Q1 last year, the growth rate of 1q22 slowed down. Looking forward to 2022, the human diploid crazy seedlings and MRC5 human embryo fibroblast crazy seedlings of Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) and Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) are expected to be approved successively. With the further increase of the players of human diploid cells and human embryo fibroblast crazy seedlings, it is expected to further improve the penetration rate of human cell culture crazy seedlings and further release the subsequent production capacity of the company. The company is expected to continue its high growth rate in 2022. The field of pet vaccine has brought new growth to the company's performance. The company is the sole agent of two rabies vaccines for pets through Kanghua animal insurance, a wholly-owned subsidiary, which will be officially sold in 2022. In 2020, the number of urban dogs and cats in China reached 100 million, and the demand for pet vaccine was more than 80 million. In the same year, the total batch issuance of animal rabies vaccine was only 25 million, of which only 10 million were domestic vaccines. Therefore, there is sufficient alternative space and incremental space in the field of pet vaccine. The company is expected to rapidly expand its market share by virtue of product quality advantages and sales ability.
Research and develop multi-point layout of pipelines to ensure sufficient power for long-term development of the company. In 2021, the company's R & D expenditure was 79 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.40%. Up to now, the company has a total of 10 R & D projects, of which hexavalent norovirus is expected to enter clinical phase I in the first half of 2022, and acyw135 meningococcal conjugate vaccine and tetravalent nasal spray influenza vaccine are expected to enter clinical phase I in the second half of 2022; In addition, the company enriches its product pipeline through participation and proxy products, and actively layout mRNA technology field and tuberculosis diagnosis and bladder treatment Grandpa.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.04 billion, RMB 3.06 billion and RMB 3.55 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 57.5%, 50.4% and 16.0%; The net profits of the parent company and PE increased by 1.39 billion yuan and 1.55 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.09 billion yuan and 1.55 billion yuan respectively.
Risk tip: the capacity expansion of human diploid vaccine is less than the expected risk; Risk of product sales falling short of expectations;
