\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 956 Guilin Seamild Foods Co.Ltd(002956) )
Events
On the evening of April 22, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report: in 2021, the revenue was 1.154 billion yuan (with an increase of 12.60%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 104 million yuan (with a decrease of 21.14%), and the non net profit deducted was 81 million yuan (with a decrease of 19.16%).
Key investment points
In the fourth quarter, the market share continued to improve and consolidate its position
In 2021, the company’s revenue was 1.154 billion yuan (with an increase of 12.60%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 104 million yuan (with a decrease of 21%), and the deduction was not 81 million yuan (with a decrease of 19%), and the performance was lower than expected; Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 is 332 million yuan (with an increase of 7%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is – 03 million yuan (with a decrease of 116%), and the deduction of non-profit is – 08 million yuan (with a decrease of 162%). The gross profit margin in 2021 was 46.70% (with a decrease of 1.8pct), of which 2021q4 was 46.05% (with an increase of 12.5pct); The net interest rate in 2021 is 9.04% (minus 4pct), of which 2021q4 is – 0.99% (minus 8pct). In 2021, the sales expense was 364 million yuan (increased by 17% at the same time), which was caused by the same increase of 13% in publicity and promotion expenses and 22% in employee salary. The administrative expenses in 2021 were 71 million yuan (+ 31.92%), which was caused by the increase of administrative expenses after Jiangsu company was put into operation and the relatively small expenditure of 2021h1 epidemic. In 2021, the net operating cash flow of the company was 30 million yuan (with a decrease of 74%), which was caused by the increase of prepayment for wheat grains and other raw materials and the increase of payment for raw and auxiliary materials for goods preparation in advance for the Spring Festival. In 2021, the inventory was 164 million yuan, an increase of 12% at the same time, which was due to the preparation of goods during the Spring Festival. In 2021, the short-term loan was 100 million yuan, an increase of 113% at the same time, which was caused by the increase of bank loans in Hezhou Ximai and Ximai marketing.
In 2021, the market share of cereal industry companies was 14.81%, ranking first in the industry; In 2021, the market share of cereal offline channel companies was 18.75%, still ranking first in the industry. The market share of the company continued to increase and consolidated its leading position.
The feedback of new hot oat products is good, and the investment promotion progress is smooth
In terms of products, the revenue of pure oatmeal in 2021 was 573 million yuan (with a decrease of 1%), accounting for 49.63% (with a decrease of 7 PCT), and the gross profit margin was 47.12% (with an increase of 1.4 PCT). The revenue of compound oatmeal was 367 million yuan (with an increase of 52%), accounting for 31.85% (with an increase of 8pct) and the gross profit margin was 48.68% (with a decrease of 6pct). The revenue of cold oatmeal was 135 million yuan (with a decrease of 8%), accounting for 11.70% (with a decrease of 3PCT), and the gross profit margin was 47.27% (with a decrease of 5pct). Hot oatmeal market accounts for nearly 20%, ranking first in the industry; The annual sales of new hot oats exceeded 100 million yuan, and continued to launch 5 black grain oats, 5 red grain oats and other oats + series new products. According to the market segmentation, we focused and strengthened brand upgrading, and launched high fiber oats bran, a variety of nut oats, red bean barley flour and so on. Cold oats launched probiotic oats, finger sucking oats and light food substitute Cereals, and constantly enriched a series of products with different flavors to form a product matrix. At the same time, the original products were upgraded. After the upgrade, the products did not contain white granulated sugar, with richer taste, crispy taste and more friendly to sugar sensitive consumers. The sales share in 2021 ranks among the top five in the market.
In terms of sub regions, the revenue of the southern region in 2021 was 562million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 27%), accounting for 48.70% (a year-on-year increase of 5pct), of which the sales of Jiangsu, Anhui and Jiangxi increased significantly year-on-year. The revenue of the northern region was 575 million yuan (with an increase of 1%), accounting for 49.83% (with a decrease of 6pct).
According to different channels, the direct revenue in 2021 was 352 million yuan (with an increase of 29%), accounting for 30.54% (with an increase of 4pct). The distribution revenue was 784 million yuan (with an increase of 6%), accounting for 67.99% (with a decrease of 4pct). Offline, by the end of 2021, there were 1373 dealers, with a net increase of 71. There are 566 in the South and 807 in the north. The company has built an offline all product, all channel and three-dimensional marketing network. On the basis of continuous and deep cultivation of Ka channel, open exploration and development of new channel cooperation mode. Accelerate the development and layout of terminal outlets, establish a benchmark market, exchange and share experience, and drive the development of vulnerable regional markets. The company continues to strengthen cooperation with target convenience store brands and suppliers in key cities to quickly distribute goods and penetrate at multiple points. While deeply cultivating offline channels, actively develop online channels and build a new marketing network system of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) efficient integration and integration. Continue to carry out refined operation on tmall and jd.com platforms and achieve certain results. At present, the company’s market share in Alibaba and JD platforms has increased to the third place in the industry.
Hot and cold food two wheel drive, equity incentive has both opportunities and challenges
At present, the company strives for progress while maintaining stability, gives full play to the advantages of the whole industrial chain and the influence of “the world’s first Chinese oat grain brand”, continues to consolidate and enhance the advantageous position of hot oats, actively carries out product upgrading and channel construction, increases brand investment, officially publicizes brand spokesmen and improves brand reputation. Promote the company’s International Research Center for “whole industry chain breeding and cultivation” of oats, conduct in-depth cooperation with the chief scientist team of oats of China’s oats and buckwheat technology system, form a “production, study and research” model, and establish a “research and technology team for exclusive varieties of Western oats”.
At present, the company’s hot food and cold food two wheel drive jointly promote the oat brand to become bigger and stronger. In order to mobilize its enthusiasm and creativity and effectively improve the cohesion of the core team and the core competitiveness of the enterprise, the company launched the equity incentive scheme in February 2021; Later, according to the changes in the market of consumer goods industry and the actual operation of the company, the company adjusted the equity incentive scheme in December 2021. After adjustment, taking 2020 as the base, it is required that the revenue growth rate in 2021 shall not be less than 21% and the net profit growth rate shall not be less than 15%; In 2022, the revenue growth rate shall not be less than 33%, and the net profit growth rate shall not be less than 25%; In 2023, the revenue growth rate shall not be less than 60%, and the net profit growth rate shall not be less than 37%. Due to the impact of the epidemic in 2021, the target was not achieved in 2021; We believe that with the recovery of consumption, the company is currently facing many opportunities and challenges, and the company strives to achieve the equity incentive goal.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company’s reform in products and channels, and are expected to complete the equity incentive target in 2022. We expect that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.54/0.70/0.87 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 30 / 23 / 18 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic drag on consumption, and the promotion of new products is less than expected; The promotion of cold food was less than expected, and the traffic of business overload decreased.
