\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Key investment points
Resumption 20202021: starting from the new car cycle and trapped in the shortage of chips: June 2020-october 2021: behind the second round of market is the 30th anniversary, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) fight back to meet the Centennial change. Break the situation with category innovation and carry out multi brand strategy on the basis of Harvard. In 2021, the global chip shortage continued and the price of raw materials continued to rise, which posed new challenges to this strategy.
Firmly promote “a little progress every day”, and the long-term competitiveness is still strong according to the analysis of five dimensions: 1) organizational change dimension: firmly implement the version 3.0 organizational structure of strong background – large middle stage – small front desk, implement equity incentive, and realize the transformation of employees’ thinking from “migrant workers” to “officer industry”. 2) Product definition dimension: continue to give full play to the advantages of category innovation. The positioning of gun (China’s pickup truck first) & tank (the world’s first cross-country) & Euler (the world’s favorite woman) & Salon (mecha Technology) is clear, Wei repositioned 0 anxiety + intelligence, and continued to explore categories; Harvard focuses on the continuous optimization of SUV market.
3) technology R & D dimension: the four technical fields of modular production + powertrain + Lemon DHT / Battery + intelligent driving software algorithm continue to advance. Lemon hybrid DHT is the core of the moment. It is urgent to improve the ability of honeycomb energy (Battery Technology Breakthrough & capacity landing) + nano smart Bank (make full use of the advantages of data scale, and high-end automatic driving products are landing continuously). 4) Supply chain dimension: adhere to the independent and controllable core unchanged, and the seven subsidiaries improve and lay all core links of vehicle production; Training third-party partners is also an important supplement. 5) Marketing channel dimension: the innovative IP enabled marketing mode in the automotive field. It is inevitable to directly link users under C2B mode, and the channel reform will be implemented unswervingly.
With the launch of new cars of six major brands, the product cycle is still strong: Based on Haval / pickup truck and the initial success of Euler / tank, WeiPai / salon is making a breakthrough, and the product cycle of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 2022 ~ 2023 is still strong. 1) Haver constantly optimizes the product matrix to achieve brand improvement. 2) The tank is positioned in the off-road market, with 300 / 500 first, 700 following up quickly, making a breakthrough in price and opening up the global market. 3) Euler positioned the female consumer market, based on black-and-white cats / good cats, and launched lightning cats / Ballet cats / Punk cats in 2022 to move up and strengthen the brand. 4) WeiPai focuses on 0 anxious intelligent vehicles and continues to launch products in various energy forms / vehicle types, making multi-dimensional and upward breakthroughs. 5) The salon locates the brand of pure electric mecha technology. The first mecha dragon is expected to be listed in 2022. Through the differentiated and innovative idea of “mecha technology”, it will benchmark the luxury electric market of more than 400000 yuan. In the future, it will continue to enrich the product matrix and strive to occupy a place in the luxury electric market.
Profit forecast and investment rating: strengthen self-cultivation and be optimistic about Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) brand! We estimate that the total operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 176.2/238.1/310.7 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 83 / 13.5/18.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23% / + 63% / + 35%, corresponding to 27 / 17 / 12 times of PE Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) the average valuation of the five comparable companies of a + H shares is 31 / 20 / 18 times. In view of the joint large-scale volume of several major brands of Great Wall in the future, we believe that great wall should enjoy higher valuation and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the progress of epidemic control is lower than expected; The demand recovery of passenger car industry is lower than expected; The development of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
