\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 128 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) )
Event overview
Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) released the first quarterly report of 2022: in 2022q1, the operating revenue was 2.128 billion yuan (+ 19.34%, YoY), the operating profit was 856 million yuan (+ 21.20%, YoY), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 659 million yuan (+ 23.38%, YoY); At the end of the first quarter, the total assets were 268698 billion yuan (+ 17.10%, yoy; + 8.97%, QoQ), deposits were 204253 billion yuan (+ 15.39%, yoy; + 11.78%, QoQ), and loans were 173121 billion yuan (+ 24.06%, yoy; + 6.34%, QoQ). Net interest margin 3.09% (+ 12bp, YoY); The non-performing loan ratio is 0.81% (- 0bp, QoQ), the provision coverage ratio is 532.73% (+ 0.91pct, QoQ), and the allocation loan ratio is 4.32% (- 0.01pct, QoQ); Capital adequacy ratio 11.74% (-0.21pct, QoQ); Annual roe13 05%(+1.36pct，YoY)。
Analysis and judgment:
The core revenue business performed well, and the revenue driven performance increased rapidly
Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) first quarter revenue, PPOP and net profit attributable to parent company were + 19.3% / + 24.1% / + 23.4% year on year respectively, further increasing 3PCT / 4.9pct/2pct compared with the growth rate of 2021. The overall acceleration of performance was mainly contributed by the interest collection business. With the increase of Q1 credit supply volume and price, the net interest income was + 24% year-on-year, significantly higher than 12.2% of the previous year; The handling fee income was - 63% year-on-year, and the net income after deducting expenses basically tended to zero. On the one hand, according to the disclosure of the company, it was mainly affected by factors such as the recognition frequency of management fee income of financial management business, on the other hand, it was affected by the high base factor in the same period last year and the overall weakening of capital market this year. Thanks to the strong driving of revenue, Q1 impairment provision remained strong at + 30% year-on-year, but the performance growth continued to rise.
Q1: strong credit supply, seasonal additional allocation to corporate areas, steady increase in deposits and further increase in interest margin month on month. The company's credit supply in the first quarter was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 24.1% in total loans, further accelerating on the basis of + 23.6% in 2021, and higher than the growth rate of total assets 7pct; On a quarter on quarter basis, Q1's total assets were + 9% compared with the beginning of the year, slightly lower than 1PCT in the same period of the previous year, while the quarterly expansion of loans was 6.3%, an increase of 0.4pct compared with the same period of the previous year. The proportion of net loans at the asset end was lower than that at the beginning of the year but higher than that in the same period of the previous year. In terms of incremental structure, Q1 loans increased by 10.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 2.5 billion yuan year-on-year. While the asset side allocated additional loans, 70% of the loan increment was invested in Gonghe bills, with retail accounting for 30%, slightly lower than the same period of last year. Corporate, bill and retail loans increased by 10.4% / 21% / 3.1% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. The growth rate of Gonghe bills increased by 0.9 PCT and 21.7 PCT compared with the same period of last year, while retail was lower than 1.2 PCT in the same period of last year; However, in terms of year-on-year growth rate, public and retail loans were + 18.8% / + 30.9% year-on-year respectively, of which + 34% of personal business loans was the main driving point, supporting the return on assets. In terms of customer base, the loan delivery continues to be small and scattered. The loan increment of customer base with a single household credit of less than 10 million accounts for 56% of the total new loans. In addition, interbank asset allocation rose in the first quarter, with investment assets + 6% year-on-year, but + 19.2% quarter on quarter, which is also the main factor driving the acceleration of asset expansion.
On the liability side, Q1 deposits increased steadily by + 15.6% year-on-year, compared with + 15.4% of the previous year, and the proportion on the liability side decreased slightly compared with the same period of the previous year, but it was still at a high level of 84.5%. The increment of deposits in the first quarter was fixed deposits, and the overall degree of fixed deposits increased. Therefore, the net interest margin of 22q1 company recorded 3.09%, year-on-year + 12bp, month on month + 3bp in the fourth quarter of last year, and has continued to rise since the middle of last year. The rise in interest rate spread is expected to have a seasonal impact on saving at the beginning of the year, and the growth rate of deposits is higher than that of loans.
The non-performing rate was flat at a low level, the concern category increased slightly, and the provision rate remained stable at a high level
The company's asset quality has always been excellent, with a Q1 non-performing rate of 0.81%, unchanged for three consecutive quarters; The proportion of concern category increased slightly by 5bp to 0.94% compared with the beginning of the year, but the absolute level was low. Under the strong strength of impairment provision, the provision rate of Q1 was 532.73%, increased by 45pct and 0.9pct respectively on the same month on month basis. It is in the first echelon of listed banks, with a high margin of safety.
Investment advice
Overall, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) in the first quarter, the credit supply was strong, the interest margin increased month on month due to the superposition of the contribution of debt structure optimization, and the volume and price rose together, driving the upward growth of revenue. At the same time, the asset quality was excellent and stable, and the high provision ensured the release of performance. We continue to be optimistic about the company's small and micro businesses and risk control advantages. In view of the performance of the first quarterly report, we maintain the prediction of the company's revenue of RMB 8.4/9.5/10.7 billion in 22-24 years and the prediction of net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.6/3.7 billion in 22-24 years, with a corresponding growth rate of 20.7% / 19.9% / 18.0%; Maintain eps0 for 22-24 years The forecast of 96 / 1.16/1.36 yuan corresponds to the closing price of 8.16 yuan / share on April 22, 2022, and Pb is 0.98/0.89/0.80 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk tips
1. The risk that the future repair of the overall economy is less than expected and the credit cost increases significantly;
2. Major business risks of the company.
