\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 674 Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) )
Event:
The company announced the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the annual revenue reached 1.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.35%; In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 174 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 558 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.69%.
Comments
The consolidated balance sheet contributed to the growth of revenue in 21 years, and the annual performance declined slightly. In terms of revenue, Xinda hydropower assets consolidated in July 2020, driving the holding enterprises to realize power generation / on grid power of 4.853/4.764 billion kwh in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 12.97% / 12.94% respectively; The annual on grid electricity price was 0.2 yuan / kWh, a slight decrease of 0.5% over the same period. The substantial growth of power generation led to a year-on-year increase of 22.52% in revenue in 2021. In terms of performance, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 3.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.35%, of which the net profit of Renzonghai dam treatment of Tianwanhe company, a subsidiary, decreased by 50 million yuan year-on-year; The decrease in the disposal income of subsidiary Jiayang power assets resulted in a year-on-year decrease in net profit of 17 million yuan. In terms of dividends, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.4 yuan / share in 21 years, with a corresponding dividend proportion of 57.1%, an increase of 4.2pct compared with 20 years.
Dam governance may have a negative impact on the performance of hydropower holding in 22 years. Due to the leakage control project of Renzonghai dam, the reservoir did not store water at the end of 2021. Q1 company achieved 536 / 525 million kwh of power generation / on grid power in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 26.86% / 26.97% respectively. Under the influence of the sharp decline of power generation in the first quarter and the dry water from the power stations under Sichuan investment power, Q1 company achieved a revenue of 174 million yuan in 22 years, a year-on-year decrease of 18.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 558 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.69%. According to the estimation of the company, the dam treatment is expected to reduce the power generation of Tianwanhe company by about 500800 million kwh in 2022, and the sales revenue excluding tax and net profit will decline by 1.4-1.8/98-128 million yuan respectively year-on-year.
In the 21st year, the performance of Yalong River hydropower was stable, and the performance increment of Liangyang was expected. In terms of production progress, Yangfanggou power station (with an installed capacity of 1.5 million KW) and Lianghekou power station (with an installed capacity of 3 million KW) were put into operation in October 21 and March 22 respectively; In terms of power generation, although the water and electricity generation of Yalong River decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in H1 of 21, driven by the continuous operation of Liangyang in the second half of the year, the power generation increased by 10.4% year-on-year, of which the power generation of Lianghekou / Yangfanggou was 2.787/1.69 billion kwh respectively, and the power generation of the whole year was 77.826 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 0.46%. The steady increase in power generation made the company realize an investment income of 3.335 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 0.75%, of which Yalong river company realized an investment income of 3.03 billion yuan. In terms of electricity price, the electricity prices of Lianghekou and Yangfanggou power stations in Q1 of 22 were 0.46/0.352 yuan / kWh respectively. According to our calculation, Liangyang hydropower station in the stable operation period can contribute about 2.33 billion and 730 million performance increments to the water and electricity of Yalong River respectively.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the expected power generation of the holding power station is reduced and the electricity price of Liangyang is still uncertain. The performance forecast is lowered. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.61/40.1/4.11 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 (4.11 billion yuan 22 years ago), corresponding to 13.7/12.3/12 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to the reduction of power demand; The incoming water is lower than expected, resulting in the decline of power generation; The utilization hours of Liangyang power station are lower than expected
