\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 61 Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) )
Key points
The annual report issued by the parent company was RMB 7.27 billion, with a year-on-year increase of RMB 6.91%, and the net profit of the parent company was RMB 6.81 billion in 2027, with a year-on-year increase of RMB 6.91%; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 212 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 69.69%; It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per share (including tax), and at the same time, it is proposed to convert capital reserve into share capital, with 2 shares for every 10 shares. The company also issued the financial budget plan for 2022. It is estimated that the consolidated operating revenue in 2022 will increase by about 20% ~ 40% compared with that in 2021.
The sales volume of diamond line maintained high growth, and the sales unit price decreased, but the profitability remained high. In 2021, the company achieved 454082 million kilometers of diamond line sales, with a year-on-year increase of 82.80%. Under the background of intensified competition and cost reduction demand of the industrial chain, the sales unit price decreased by 15.68% to 40.17 yuan / km year-on-year. However, the company diluted the fixed production cost through (1) large-scale advantages, (2) arranged upstream raw materials to ensure the supply of raw materials and reduce the cost of raw materials (3) Making use of the leading edge of technology to realize the research and development and sales of new products has maintained the industry-leading profitability. The gross profit margin of diamond line sales has only decreased slightly by 1.46 PCT to 57.26%.
The pace of capacity expansion continued, and the upstream industrial chain was arranged to ensure the supply of raw materials. By the end of 2021, the production capacity of the company’s diamond line has reached 70 million km / A. on the one hand, the company continues to promote the new production capacity of 257 high-efficiency electroplating diamond lines in Yangling (about 30 million km / a) in 2022. On the other hand, the company adopts the technical transformation method of “single machine and 12 lines” to further expand the production of the existing production line (the original energy will be increased by 33% after the technical transformation is completed). It is expected that the production capacity of the company’s diamond line will reach 120 million km / a by the end of 2022. In addition, the company’s annual output of 6000 tons of diamond cutting wire base material project is progressing smoothly. After being put into operation, the company’s upstream raw material support capacity is further enhanced, and the cost advantage is expected to be maintained.
Under the background of the urgent demand for cost reduction, the company’s technical advantages are further highlighted. Under the background of the rising price of silicon material and the expansion of the production capacity of n-type silicon wafer, the demand of downstream customers for cost reduction and slicing is further strengthened, and the demand for the fine line of diamond wire is more urgent; The company has been able to mass produce and supply 40 μ M line, 38 at the same time μ Small batch supply and of line M μ The small-scale test of M line is at the absolute leading level in the industry (the mainstream products in the industry are 45) μ M line); In addition, the company innovates the application of “flexible cutting” and “structural wire cutting” technology. In the future, driven by the advantages of scale and technology, the market share of the company is expected to further increase.
Maintain the “buy” rating: according to the company’s capacity planning, we raised the company’s net profit forecast for 22-23 years and introduced the 24-year profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be RMB 1.010/12.43/1.424 billion (up 3% / up 6% / New), with the corresponding EPS of RMB 2.52/3.11/3.56, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 24 / 20 / 17 times respectively. Through technological transformation and production expansion, the company ensures the steady improvement of production capacity, and its proposed “five modernizations” technical route is also highly in line with the development trend of silicon wafer links in the future (single crystal, sheet, etc.). We are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company’s market share and the maintenance of high profitability, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the global installation of PV, the company’s capacity expansion and diamond line sales are not as expected; Diamond line prices fell more than expected.
