\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 233 Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) )
The company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 50 million in 22q1, a year-on-year decrease of 85%
The company released the first quarterly report of 22 years, with a revenue of 1.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 50 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 85.0%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent of 110 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.9%. Non operating profits and losses are mainly securities investment income and floating loss of - 120 million yuan.
The decline in sales led to a decline in revenue and a decrease in gross profit per ton
The decline of the company's revenue in the first quarter was mainly due to the decline of sales volume. The output / sales volume of cement in the first quarter was 39084 / 3484500 tons respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 18.75% / 25.39% respectively. It was mainly affected by the continuous and in-depth regulation of real estate, the continuous slowdown of real estate investment, the more rainy and cold weather in Guangdong after the Spring Festival and the impact of covid-19 epidemic in some cement sales areas of the company, and the slow recovery of downstream construction, In Q1, the average cement shipment rate in Guangdong and Guangxi was about 45%, down 19% year-on-year. As of mid April, the shipment recovered to 70%, which is still far from 90% in the same period last year. The overall sales pressure in the second quarter remains. We estimate that the average price of 22q1 tons is about 360 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 39 yuan, but the month on month 21q4 decreases by about 134 yuan, the ton cost is 276 yuan, the year-on-year / month on month ratio is + 58 / - 30 yuan / ton, the gross profit per ton is 84 yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 20 yuan / ton, and the month on month 21q4 falls sharply by 104 yuan / ton. We expect that the impact of Q2 coal price is expected to weaken year-on-year, and the gross profit per ton may begin to pick up. Throughout the year, the cement demand in Guangdong is still resilient. According to the Guangdong Development and Reform Commission, 1570 provincial key projects will be arranged in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. The total investment is 7670 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The annual planned investment is 900 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. Infrastructure is expected to fill the demand gap. On the supply side, no new capacity is expected in Guangdong in 2022, but there is still capacity investment in Guangxi. The inflow of cement from other provinces may have a certain impact on the supply pattern of Guangdong. In terms of price, benefiting from the supply contraction caused by the tightening of peak shifting production, and with the support of cost, the price center is still expected to move up in 22 years.
22q1 net interest rate hit a 17 year low and the capital structure was further improved
Since the year-on-year decline, the company's gross profit rate of R & D expenses + 1.8% and net profit rate of 1.8% and 1.8% respectively fell year-on-year, with a year-on-year decline of - 1.8% and 1.8% respectively. The asset liability ratio at the end of the period was 11.2%, down 3.8pct compared with the end of the year 21, and the capital structure was further optimized.
The dividend yield highlights the investment value and maintains the "overweight" rating
The company expects to pay 739million cash dividends in 21 years, and 262million cash dividends in other ways (such as share repurchase). The total amount of cash dividends is 1billion yuan, accounting for 54% of the net profit attributable to the parent company. In recent years, the dividend rate is 50%-60%. The dividend rate is higher than that of similar companies, and the investment value is prominent. In the next 22 years, the company will accelerate the green transformation, intelligent upgrading and standardization construction, continue to expand and strengthen the main cement industry, vigorously develop emerging industries, accelerate the construction of photovoltaic power generation and cement kiln collaborative disposal projects, maintain the 22-24 year net profit forecast of RMB 2.09/22.6/2.37 billion, refer to comparable companies, approve and give the company 7 times PE in 22 years, the target price of RMB 12.25, and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: cement demand is less than expected, price rise in peak season is less than expected, coal cost rise, etc.
