\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 127 Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) )
Performance review
On April 21, 2022, the company announced the annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, the company's revenue was 415 million yuan, a decrease of 5% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 140 million yuan, a decrease of 23% at the same time; In 2022, Q1 revenue was RMB 90 million, with a decrease of 7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 22 million, with a decrease of 44%.
Business analysis
The change of key customer scheme has dragged down the company's short-term performance. 1) The decline of the company's revenue, gross profit margin and performance are mainly due to the change of the scheme of downstream key customers, and the sales volume of long prism products has decreased significantly. The revenue of the company's optical prism in 2021 was 230 million yuan, a decrease of 22% at the same time. In 2022, the revenue of Q1 company's long prism was 03 million yuan, with a decrease of 91%, accounting for 3% of the revenue, a decrease of 28.4pct over the same period last year. The influence of the long prism on the company is gradually weakened. 2) In 2021, the company's glass aspherical lens revenue was 99 million yuan, with an increase of 74%. In 2022, Q1 glass aspherical lens revenue was 30 million yuan, with an increase of 71%, mainly due to the strong demand for vehicle lens and laser downstream.
Increase investment in research and development of new products, and micro prism products are expected to be in large quantities in 2023. 1) In 2020, the company successfully went public and raised 600 million yuan to invest in high-precision glass wafer and micro prism industry. Micro prism is the core optical element of periscope camera, and glass wafer is the main substrate for manufacturing ar optical waveguide lens. By the end of 2021, the company had invested 15% in the glass wafer project and 18% in the micro prism project. 2) In 2021, the company's R & D expenses reached 44 million yuan, an increase of 62% at the same time, and the R & D rate reached 10.6%, mainly due to the investment of new projects. 3) According to the science and Innovation Board daily, apple is expected to release the periscope camera in 2023. The company has prominent competitive advantages in the field of glass cold processing. At present, it has conducted multiple rounds of samples for the world-famous optical component manufacturers. It is expected to successfully enter the apple micro prism project in the future. It is expected that the micro prism project is expected to gradually increase its volume and contribute incremental revenue to the company in 2023.
Investment suggestions:
Considering the large volume of micro prism projects in 2023, it is estimated that the parent company's performance from 2022 to 2024 will be 140 million yuan, 280 million yuan and 400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 3%, 110% and 41%. Maintain the buy rating, and the target price is 18 yuan (25 2023eps).
Risk warning: the main customers are relatively concentrated, the micro prism project is less than expected, the market competition intensifies the risk, and the risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.
