\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 44 Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) )
Events
On April 23, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The revenue in 2021 was 1.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.27%, accounting for 45% of the revenue in 2019; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 315 million yuan, turning losses into profits, with a loss of 1.752 billion yuan in the same period last year; Among them, Q4 revenue decreased by 40% year-on-year, with a net loss of 117 million yuan to the parent. In 2012, Q1 realized an income of 85.304 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 72%, and the net loss attributable to the parent company was 38.586 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 129.15%.
Key investment points
In the second half of the year, the epidemic affected the performance recovery, and the design and planning fee was less confirmed
1) live performance: the revenue of Hangzhou / Sanya / Lijiang / Jiuzhai / Guilin / Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) / Xi’an qiangu scene area was + 69% / + 16% – 15% / + 77% / + 61% / + 78% / – 33% year on year respectively. The income of Hangzhou, Sanya and Lijiang qiangu scene areas recovered to 54%, 39% and 34% respectively in 2019. Due to the repeated epidemic in the second half of 2021, the recovery of major scenic spots in the second half of 2021 was significantly weaker than that in the first half of the year. Shanghai qianguqing opened in April 2021, with an annual revenue of 73.046 million yuan. During the May Day holiday, it received 179000 tourists, and the guest unit price reached a new high in all scenic spots of song city. Under the background of the continuous impact of the epidemic, the company has made great efforts to explore diversified product forms and expand the capacity of scenic spots, so as to continuously improve the product strength and popularity of the company. During the Spring Festival Golden Week, the May Day holiday and the National Day golden week, the indicators such as the number of people received, the number of performances, income, the proportion of individual tourists and the length of stay of tourists all exceeded the same period in 2019.
2) tourism services: the revenue from the design and planning fees affected by the epidemic in the second half of the year is recognized. Design and planning fee: in 2021, the company’s design and planning fee was 102 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44%. The revenue of design and planning fee in the second half of the year was only 1.45 million yuan, or the revenue recognition was affected by the severe epidemic in the second half of the year. As of December 31, 2021, the cost of planning, design and program production in the contract liabilities is about 78.14 million yuan, which is expected to be gradually recognized as income in 2022. E-commerce service charge: in 2021, the e-commerce service charge was 73.046 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%.
3) investment income: the investment income in 2021 is 182 million yuan, mainly contributed by flower house technology.
Costs and expenses: the increase in the conversion of new projects to fixed assets has led to a decline in the gross profit margin and good cost control.
1) gross profit margin: in 2021, the gross profit margin was 51.08%, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.85pct, mainly due to the increase of depreciation due to the upgrading of Sanya project, the transformation of Lijiang project and the increase of fixed assets transfer of Shanghai project construction. The company reduced personnel and improved operational efficiency. By the end of 2021, the company had 1159 employees, a decrease of 282 compared with the same period last year.
2) expense ratio: in 2021, the sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and R & D expense ratio were 5.6%, 25.1% and 3.48% respectively, with a decrease of 1.5pct/10.97pct/0.67pct respectively.
2022q1: many scenic spots are closed, and the revenue performance is under pressure.
In 2022, Q1 achieved an income of 85.304 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 72%, and the net loss attributable to the parent company was 38.586 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 129.15%. In 2022, Q1 Shanghai, Jiuzhaigou, Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) , Xi’an projects are all closed, and other scenic spots are also closed intermittently. Combined with the high growth of business in the first half of last year, it is expected that the on-site performance revenue of 22q1 will decline sharply, the contract liabilities of 22q1 will decrease by 11.92 million yuan, or due to the recognition of some asset light project planning expenses. Affected by the cost rigidity, the gross profit margin fell 21pct to 42%. On the expense side, due to the impact of the park closure, the sales expenses were significantly reduced by 77%, and the management personnel expenses were relatively rigid, and the absolute amount was the same as that in the same period last year, resulting in a significant increase in the management expense rate.
Future outlook: the recovery trend of tourism industry remains unchanged in twists and turns, and the upgrading of stock projects + the opening of new projects help long-term growth.
This year, the local epidemic spread has brought great pressure on the company’s core scenic spots, and the annual revenue performance has been under pressure. Since the outbreak, the company, as the industry leader, has continuously strengthened its internal strength, actively responded to the impact of the epidemic, expanded and upgraded the stock projects, improved the customer source structure and customer order level, and achieved great revenue performance flexibility in the stage of weak impact of the epidemic. In the medium and long term, Xi’an, Shanghai and other projects are in the climbing stage, and Xitang, Foshan and Zhuhai projects will continue to be completed, adding momentum to the long-term growth of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The company is a leading company in the scenic spot. The ability of remote replication is obvious to all, and the subject matter is scarce. The short-term disturbance of the epidemic does not change the long-term growth. The company is skilled in product polishing and innovation, and constructs the core competitive barrier of the Performing Arts kingdom. Later, with the recovery of the tourism market, the company is expected to show great performance flexibility. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 300 million, 840 million and 1.5 billion respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, and the landing of new projects was less than expected.
