\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 50 Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) )
Events
Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.477 billion yuan, an increase of 19.98% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 514 million yuan, an increase of 21.1% at the same time; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 484 million yuan, an increase of 28.3% at the same time. In 2022q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 644 million yuan, an increase of 14.7% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 98 million yuan, an increase of 34.0% at the same time; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 127 million yuan, an increase of 28.0% at the same time.
The performance exceeded expectations and the profitability gradually improved
According to the annual report of 2021, due to the rise of commodity prices and other factors, the proportion of material cost in the slewing ring industry of the company increased from 63.6% in 2020 to 68.7% in 2021, bringing certain profit pressure to the company. However, in 2021, the company's gross profit margin increased by 0.37pct to 30.82% instead of decreasing, reflecting the company's ability to increase the price and reduce the cost. In terms of sales volume, the company sold 19474 pieces in 2021, an increase of 22% at the same time; The unit price is 116000 yuan, down 2% at the same time. The subsidiary Shengjiu forging achieved an operating revenue of 10864704 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 38.76% at the same time; The net profit was 1031068 million yuan, an increase of 77.49%.
The company's performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations. The company's gross profit margin in 2022q1 was 34.42%, up 5.45pcts month on month, and its profitability was significantly improved. It is expected that as the company improves the self supply rate of forgings and optimizes the bearing structure, the gross profit margin is expected to rise further.
The trend of large MW of wind power is obvious, and the value of main bearing increases
The bidding price of wind power has fallen rapidly in recent years, which puts great pressure on the main engine plant to reduce the cost. Under the background of the rise of bulk price, large-scale is the most important way to reduce the cost. We believe that high-power main bearings are expected to gain full benefits in this process. At present, the company has successfully developed 5.5MW and 6.25mw wind turbine main shaft bearing products, and began to supply Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) in batches.
Comply with the localization substitution process
At present, many large foreign multinational bearing enterprises occupy more than 70% of the global bearing market share and monopolize the high-end market of the bearing industry. At present, China mainly occupies the middle and low-end market of the bearing industry. After years of exploration, the company has successfully achieved the import substitution of high-end bearings in the field of wind turbine spindle bearings, which is expected to break the monopoly pattern of high-end market.
Profit forecast
We predict that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.42 billion yuan, 4.62 billion yuan and 5.79 billion yuan respectively, and its EPS will be 3.84, 5.41 and 7.05 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 26, 19 and 14 times respectively, giving the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
The wind power installation did not meet expectations, the localization of main shaft bearings did not meet expectations, and the cost of raw materials increased.
