\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 44 Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) )
Key investment points
The company released the results of 2021 and 22q1. (1) In 2021, the revenue is 1.185 billion / yoy + 31.3%, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 315 million / yoy + 118.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction is 268 million / yoy + 115.2%; (2) 21q4 revenue is 169 million / yoy-40.4%, net profit attributable to parent company is - 117 million / yoy + 93.8%, net profit attributable to parent company after deduction is - 102 million / yoy + 94.6%; (3) 22q1 revenue 85 million / yoy-72.2%, net profit attributable to parent company - 39 million / yoy-129%. Local outbreaks occurred for many times, the park was closed intermittently, disturbing the business performance, which was in line with expectations as a whole.
Highlights of the project: Hangzhou continues to promote the Performing Arts Kingdom model, the Shanghai project is waiting to appear after upgrading, the equity transfer of Zhuhai performing arts Valley alleviates the cash pressure, and other projects climb rapidly.
(1) Hangzhou project: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 453 million yuan / yoy + 70.8%, thanks to the promotion of the 3.0 performing Kingdom model, the combination of multiple theatres, multiple plays and various ticket types, the program capacity increased from 120 minutes to 300 minutes, and the stay time of tourists increased from 3 hours to 6 hours. "Song city wonderful night" and "double new year's Eve" on Christmas and new year's Day attracted more young customers, and the golden week of the Spring Festival During the May Day holiday and the National Day golden week, many indicators such as the total number of people received and the proportion of individual tourists are close to or higher than the level of the same period in 2019. At the end of 2021, there was a local outbreak in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and the project was closed. In the follow-up, with the phased stability of the epidemic and the continuous promotion of the Performing Arts Kingdom model, the inventory flagship project will grow steadily in the medium and long term.
(2) Shanghai project: in its first year of operation, it has achieved more than 70 million revenue, built the cornerstone of profitability through the ages, created a new mode of performance development through immersive walking performances and outsourced plays, and attracted young customers through punk flash and water splashing festival activities; By the end of the 21st national day, the three main shows of the large-scale song and dance "Shanghai eternal love", the parent-child show "wa! Dinosaur" and the meal show "warm Samba" have been staged for about 500 times, and nearly one million tourists have been received. During the winter holiday rectification, we expect that the Shanghai project will be improved in the park transformation and performance programs of the scenic spot, and the "Shanghai eternal love" and meal show will be upgraded, wa! In the series, the second film "wa! Ocean", sci-fi love show "blue love l'amourleu", war experience drama "cuckoo chattering blood" and night show "Shanghai color" have been edited and created. They may appear in the future. After the epidemic situation is stable, the project will reopen or become a catalyst. In the future, it is expected to promote urban performance to other cities and open the growth ceiling.
(3) Zhuhai project: Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) plans to transfer 100% equity of Zhuhai performing arts Valley project to Songcheng group for consideration of 458 million. In the future, Songcheng group will be responsible for the construction and incubation of Zhuhai project, and Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) will carry out operation and management. Equity transfer is conducive to optimizing the pace of capital expenditure and investment mode of the company in the next few years, and enhancing the ability of sustainable operation and anti risk. After the opening of Zhuhai Chimelong, local tourism has been boosted, and the mode of performance Valley has been upgraded again to create a world-class cultural and tourism landmark. After the formation of performance cluster, it is easier to give play to the platform effect.
(4) other items: Guilin eternal plot, brilliant performance during holidays; Jiuzhai project recovered smoothly after the earthquake Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) project is in a fast climbing period, and love in Western Hunan has been successfully staged to improve the product matrix. The three major projects have increased by more than 50% year-on-year in 21 years. Compared with 2019 before the epidemic, we believe that Xi'an, Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) , Jiuzhai (reopened), Guilin, Shanghai and many other eternal situations still in rapid climbing are the core drivers of the company. If the restrictions related to subsequent travel are gradually liberalized, it is expected to show good performance flexibility and growth from 2022 to 24.
The flattening of the organization and management system and the optimization of the creative team support the platform development of the company. The company has carried out systematic and integrated reform of the organizational structure, structural optimization of employees, standardized, vertical and flat management of management processes, and formed the core management structure of "one center and five departments" of the headquarters and "four departments and one group" of each project company. In terms of creation, some of the original teams are transferred to art troupe management and some stay in the creation group, expand external cooperative colleges and troupes, attract editing and creation professionals, northern dance and other college talents, constantly improve the creation structure and support the platform and ecological development of the performing arts company.
Investment suggestion: Songcheng stock project transformation, new project climbing and flower house group business are developing well. Considering the repeated impact of the epidemic on the recovery of China's tourism market, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 679 million / 1315 million / 1681 million, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on April 22 will be 53.03x/27.38x/21.42x respectively. We are optimistic about the recovery of consumption after the epidemic. Projects such as Hangzhou and Shanghai will usher in catalysis and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects the recovery of the tourism market; The recovery of stock items is less than expected; The implementation effect of new projects is less than expected; The construction progress of the new project is lower than expected.
