\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 918 Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) )
Event: 21fy achieved revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 6.99/3.2/300 billion, yoy + 43.6% / – 44.4% / – 46.6%. Among them, the revenue of Q1-Q4 increased by 106% / 60% / 19% / 35%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.5/2.3/1.3 / – 100 million yuan, yoy + 19% / 33% / – 17% / – 154%. If the impact of individual impairment was deducted, Q4 company basically realized profit and loss balance.
Capacity release superimposed channel expansion, and the market share of the company is expected to increase
21fy’s ceramic construction revenue was 6.88 billion yuan, yoy + 44.2%. In terms of sales channels, both distribution and engineering channels achieved significant growth, yoy + 29.7% / 61.8%, accounting for 51.1% / 48.9% respectively, and the proportion of big B increased by 5.5pct year-on-year. The production and sales volume of 21fy were 160 / 150 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 41% / 52% respectively; The comprehensive average price of the product is 45 yuan / square meter, yoy-5.1%. At the end of 21fy, the number of distributors of the company was 1540, yoy + 25.2%, and the number of specialty stores and outlets was 4620, an increase of 323 compared with that at the end of 21h1. We expect that the company’s subsequent large b-end business may be relatively stable, while the distribution end business is expected to maintain steady growth driven by channel expansion, and small b-end business is expected to maintain rapid expansion. At the industry level, the output of building ceramics in 21fy is 8.17 billion square meters, yoy-4.1%. Although the overall scale of the industry has decreased, the market share of the company in 21 years has reached 2.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6pct. We believe that under the background of carbon neutralization, the concentration of high energy consuming ceramic tile industry is expected to accelerate.
21fy gross profit margin is under pressure, and 22q1 cost side pressure remains
21fy company’s gross profit margin is 29.11%, yoy-5.2pct; Among them, the gross profit margin of porcelain glazed tile / porcelain unglazed tile / non porcelain glazed tile / ceramic sheet is 29.9% / 31.2% / 17.3% / 36.2%, yoy-6.5 / + 0.4 / + 0.1 / – 12.3pct. Coal, natural gas and raw materials all increased significantly last year. We believe that porcelain glazed tiles are mainly affected by raw materials, and the gross profit margin decreases greatly, while ceramic thin sectors may be under the dual pressure of price and cost. Coal price in 22q1 increased by 80.3% year-on-year, decreased by 11.2% month on month, natural gas increased by 8.3% month on year, and increased by 10.1% month on month. Considering that natural gas accounts for a larger proportion, we expect the energy end cost in 22q1 to rise slightly month on month.
The expense rate is stable during the period, and the operating cash flow is under short-term pressure
21fy sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio is 9.19% / 6.45% / 3.80% / 0.85% respectively, yoy-0.80 / + 0.35 / – 0.02 / + 0.74pct. The increase in the rate of administrative expenses was mainly due to the increase in the size of the company and the substantial increase in employee compensation due to the acquisition of Gao’an production base, and the increase in financial expenses was due to the acquisition of loan interest. 21fy accrued impairment loss of 219 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 199 million yuan, mainly due to the company’s single withdrawal of 120 million yuan for Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Evergrande and other defaulting enterprises under the thunderstorm of the real estate industry chain. The net interest rate of 21fy was 4.64%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.01pct. The net CFO of 21fy company was -84 million yuan, a decrease of 660 million yuan over the same period last year, which was mainly due to the increase of the company’s accounts payable, with a cash to income ratio of 90%, a year-on-year decrease of -11.98pct.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the company’s real estate risk control is better than that of its competitors, and the subsequent continuous expansion toughness is at the leading level in the industry. At present, the industry may be at a low profit level, and the subsequent competition pattern is expected to continue to be optimized. According to the operation of 21fy, we lower the forecast and predict the performance of RMB 790 / 1.26 billion in 22-24 years (the previous value of RMB 950 / 1.25 billion in 22-23 years), corresponding to pe9.9 billion 3 / 7.2 / 5.2, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the cost rise is higher than expected, the downstream demand is lower than expected, and the acquisition integration is lower than expected
