\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 025 Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) )
Event:
The company announced the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the annual revenue reached 20.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.75%; Earnings per share reached 0.32 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.52%; In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 3.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 742 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%.
Comments
Electricity price increase + cost optimization helped to improve the performance of 21 years by 20.75% year-on-year
In terms of power generation, the company generated 94.396 billion kwh in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 3.25%. The main reasons include: 1 The inflow of the whole Lancang River Basin is relatively dry, of which the inflow of the wunonglong / Xiaowan / Nuozhadu section is 15.9% / 3.9% / 14.4% year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in the annual power generation of Manwan and above power stations in the Lancang River Basin; 2. In order to ensure the power supply in the winter of 21 and spring of 22, the company strictly controls the water levels of Xiaowan and Nuozhadu hydropower stations. In terms of electricity price, according to the data of Kunming Electric Power Trading Center, the average market-oriented trading price of Yunnan Province in the whole year of 21 years was 0.203 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.018 yuan / kWh. The company’s market-oriented trading electricity price increased year-on-year, with a large weight of market-oriented trading electricity, so that the company’s comprehensive settlement electricity price in the whole year of 21 reached 0.241 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.018 yuan / kWh. The rise of electricity price hedged the poor incoming water, driving the company’s revenue of 21 years to + 4.93% year-on-year. In terms of gross profit margin, the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 54.63%, a year-on-year increase of + 1.46pct; In terms of period expenses, the company reduced the financial expenses by 12.7% year-on-year and the asset liability ratio to the historical lowest value of 58.78% through the optimization of debt structure.
The volume and price rise together with the cost decline, and the 22-year performance can be expected
The year-on-year improvement of power generation: in Q1, the water from wunonglong and Xiaowan sections was relatively abundant by 6% / 9%. Superimposed with the year-on-year increase of water elevator level energy storage at the beginning of the year, the completed power generation was 17.627 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 1.62%; The rising trend of electricity price is expected to continue: from January to April of 22, the average market-oriented transaction electricity price in Yunnan Province was 0.2667 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%; In addition, the year-on-year increase in power transmission from the west to the East has driven the increase in power demand. There is still room for the increase in the guaranteed volume bidding and market-oriented transaction price of the upper LAN section to Guangdong. In terms of cost, the depreciation of some units of Jinghong, Xiaowan and other power stations gradually expired, driving the year-on-year reduction of operating costs.
New energy projects have been steadily promoted, and the growth space has been further opened
In 2021, the company completed the change of commitment to the listing of wind power and photovoltaic projects, lifted the constraints on the development of new energy, completed the approval (filing) of 3.868 million kw of new energy in the same year, and started the construction of 990000 kW. The capital expenditure of the company in the year of 22 is planned to be 10.512 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 92.2%, of which 5 billion yuan is planned to be invested in the development of new energy projects. It is planned to start 15 new projects in the year of 22, with an installed capacity of 1.3 million KW. Paying equal attention to the development of hydropower and new energy projects will contribute new performance growth points to the company.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the year-on-year improvement of incoming water in 2022, the clear upward trend of market-oriented transaction electricity price in Yunnan Province, the downward cost caused by the expiration of unit depreciation, and the upward performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.29/77.1/8.1 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 (6.67/7.26 billion yuan from 22 to 23 years ago), corresponding to 15.5/14.7/14 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the risk of macroeconomic downturn, the risk of falling behind expectations, the risk of falling electricity prices, the risk of excessive capital expenditure, etc
