\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 268 Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 21 years, with annual revenue of 2.64 billion, yoy + 25.1%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 140 million, yoy-42.6%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 130 million, yoy-44.1%. In the fourth quarter alone, the revenue was 840 million, yoy + 15.5%; Net profit attributable to parent company -0.10 billion, yoy-111.6%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company - 20 million, yoy-118.6%.
The "b-end + C-end" project drives revenue growth. Under the pressure of real estate policy regulation and continuous epidemic, the company's single quarter revenue growth rate of 21q1-q4 was + 115.6% / + 31.4% / + 10.5% / + 15.5%, and the single Q4 revenue growth rate increased month on month. In terms of products, the annual revenue of steel safety doors / other doors / intelligent locks was 1.85/5.4/160 billion, yoy + 17.2% / + 45.1% / + 56.4%; Sales volume yoy + 10.7% / + 47.8% / + 29.6%; Unit price: yoy + 5.8% / - 1.8% / + 20.7%. Throughout the year, the steel door business grew steadily, and the sales of other doors (armored doors, wooden doors, copper doors, etc.) and intelligent lock products increased rapidly. Among them, the price increase of intelligent lock business was significant. By channel, the company's distribution, engineering and e-commerce channels achieved revenue of 1.33/11.8/0.4 billion, yoy + 14.8% / + 35.7% / + 54.4%. In the distribution channels, the C-end / b-end revenue is 580 / 750 million, yoy + 19.4% / + 11.6%. Thanks to the continuous development of brand publicity and the continuous expansion of distribution network, the company's C-end sales expansion has achieved remarkable results. During the reporting period, the company added 449 dealers and replaced 271, and the distribution channels were continuously expanded and optimized. In terms of Engineering channels, the company continued to deepen cooperation with excellent real estate enterprises and actively explore high-quality engineering customers. In 21 years, the proportion of engineering channel revenue in main business revenue increased to 46.3%, yoy + 3.9pct.
Profit side: the rising cost of raw materials leads to short-term pressure on performance, and the impact of bad debt provision of real estate customers is limited.
In terms of gross profit margin, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 24.5% in sales in 21 years, yoy-7.4pct. In terms of products, the gross profit margin of steel safety doors / other doors / intelligent locks of the company was 23.1% / 26.8% / 37.7% and yoy-8.9pct / - 4.6pct / - 1.0pct respectively. By channel, the gross profit margin of the company's distribution, engineering and e-commerce channels are 24.9% / 23.6% / 59.2% and yoy-6.5pct / - 8.9pct / - 2.9pct respectively. The decline in comprehensive gross profit margin was mainly due to the sharp fluctuation in the price of the company's main raw materials during the reporting period. The average purchase price of steel was about 6300 yuan / ton in 2021, an increase of about 40% compared with 4500 yuan / ton in 20 years. Quarterly, the gross profit margin of 21q1-q4 company is 30.5% / 27.3% / 27.5% / 16.8% respectively, and yoy + 1.6 / - 2.7 / - 2.8 / - 18.5pct. According to wind data, the price of cold rolled coil (1.0mm), the main raw material of the company's steel door, has fallen from the high of about 6500 yuan / ton last year to about 5600 yuan / ton in 22q1. We expect that the current cost pressure of the company is expected to be relieved to a certain extent.
In terms of net interest rate and expense rate, the company achieved a net sales interest rate of 5.2% and yoy-6.2pct in 21 years. The annual expense rate of the company is 16.5%, yoy + 0.4pct. Among them, the sales expense rate, management expense rate, R & D expense rate and financial expense rate are 11.0% / 4.1% / 2.2% / - 0.8%, yoy + 0.4 (excluding freight caliber) / + 0.4 / - 0.4 / - 0.1pct. During the reporting period, the company completed the negotiation and signing of star endorsement cooperation, and the annual business publicity fee was 19.379 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 195.7%. The company continued to promote the mobilization and commissioning of equipment in Changtian and Sichuan plants, and some production lines began to be put into trial operation. In 21 years, the project under construction was converted into fixed assets of 440 million yuan, with depreciation of 35.263 million yuan. Throughout the year, the company incurred a credit impairment loss of 21.014 million yuan, and the bad debt provision for Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) , China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) notes receivable and accounts receivable of real estate customers was 16.948 million yuan, accounting for 29.6% of the total. In view of the high quality of cooperative real estate customers of the company and the special margin model for dealers, we expect that the impact of impairment of receivables of individual real estate customers on the future performance of the company is relatively limited.
Investment suggestion: in terms of brand, the company has ranked first among the top 500 preferred suppliers with comprehensive strength in real estate development for nine consecutive years, and has established good strategic cooperation with famous real estate enterprises such as country garden, Longhu and China Resources. Under the trend of centralized purchase, the brand advantage is expected to continue to strengthen. In addition, Li Yifeng, the company's signing spokesman in 21 years, will further improve the brand image and popularity while adhering to the high-end retail strategy. In terms of channels, the company has more than 2000 distributors above Designated Size, with distribution networks all over the country; In terms of engineering business, the guarantee fund model is conducive to reducing the risk of recovery of accounts receivable. In terms of capacity expansion, the company's Zhejiang Changtian IPO project and Sichuan Pengxi self raised project are expected to be put into operation gradually from 2021 to 23. After being put into operation, the new output value is about 5.16 billion yuan, about twice the revenue in 2021, which will greatly improve the company's supply capacity and break through the current capacity constraints to achieve the rapid growth of engineering business.
Profit forecast: as the company's new production capacity is still in progress and the price of raw materials is high, we will lower the revenue forecast of the company in 22 and 23 years to 3.35/4.25 billion yuan (original value of 3.56/4.66 billion yuan), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 and 23 years is expected to be 270 / 370 million yuan (original value of 3.1/390 billion yuan) respectively, corresponding to 17 and 12 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation exceeds the expected risk; The risk that the completion of the property is less than expected; Less than expected risk of capacity expansion; Market space measurement deviation risk; There is a risk that the research information may not be updated in time.
