\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 786 Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) )
Company announcement: the company released the annual report and the first quarterly report of 2021. The annual revenue was RMB 2.807 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 389 million, a year-on-year decrease of 24.44%. It is proposed to pay 5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. In 2022q1, the revenue was 736 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.76%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.67%.
The epidemic situation, lack of core and other factors affect the industrial chain, and the short-term performance is under pressure. In 2021, the global auto market was deeply affected by the epidemic and the shortage of chip supply. The sales proportion of the company’s key customer Volkswagen group decreased from 74.33% in the previous year to 69.73%, but it still accounted for a relatively high proportion. In 2021, the delivery volume of Volkswagen Group in the Asia Pacific region decreased by 12.4% year-on-year. China is the largest single market of Volkswagen and the hardest hit area of semiconductor shortage. The delivery volume decreased by 14.1%, which is the main reason affecting the company’s performance. In terms of products, the company achieved a revenue of 1.38 billion yuan of lighting control system in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 4.64%. The revenue of motor control system was 605 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.78%. The revenue of on-board appliances and electronics was 525 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.09%. The revenue of energy management system was 69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.06%. By region, China’s revenue was 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%, and overseas revenue was 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.93%. The gross profit margin was 34.56%, down 1.84 PCT year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the shortage of chips, the rise in the price of raw materials and the depreciation of the euro. The expense rate was 19.21%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6 PCT, of which the sales expense rate decreased by 0.61 PCT, and the management and R & D expense rate increased. The company is a leading automotive controller supplier in China. Although it is greatly affected by external factors in the short term, medium and long-term automotive intelligent innovation and localization of controllers will drive the high growth of the market. The company actively arranges new products and customers, and issues equity incentive plan to provide basic guarantee for the long-term development of the company.
With high R & D investment, new products will continue to climb the slope and increase in volume. The R & D investment in 2021 was 304 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.42%, accounting for 10.83% of the current revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 2.58 PCT. The company has the international advanced level of automotive electronic product development strength, has the independent development of automotive electronic products in line with the AUTOSAR standard architecture, and the R & D technology that can be directly connected with the vehicle manufacturer’s model development platform. The company started from the light control link. In recent years, focusing on the electronic control technology, the company upgraded the light control and other advantageous products, and increased the development and introduction of new products to enhance the value of bicycles. The company has achieved steady growth in the sales of major new products such as intelligent actuators, USB, in cabin intelligent light sources and national VI emission system of commercial vehicles, and further optimized the product sales structure. In 2022, the company plans to convert nearly 55 new products related to national VI emission of light control, chassis controller, intelligent actuators, USB and commercial vehicles. In addition, the company focuses on strengthening the research and technology promotion and application of underlying algorithms related to domain controllers, integrating existing resources, building new business platforms, and creating intelligent assembly products for system integration. At present, through the technical accumulation of chassis air suspension controller, the company has cultivated many product series such as DCC and ASC chassis intelligent controller related to chassis domain controller technology. At the same time, it involves the adaptive adjustment of automobile chassis and the functions of vehicle driving safety and comfort, and has obtained more than 10 fixed-point projects from multiple customers. At present, the highest single vehicle sales has exceeded 1300 yuan / vehicle.
The development of new energy customers is smooth and the customer structure is optimized. The company has completed the market layout of new energy vehicle head enterprises outside China. The market has covered different new energy models of customers such as Volkswagen Group MEB and PPE platform, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely, great wall, Chang’an, Dongfeng, Weilai and Xiaopeng. The projects of new energy vehicles designated by customers have increased year by year, and the overall penetration rate of products in the new energy vehicle market has increased rapidly. In 2021, the company obtained 22 designated projects for new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of about 50%. The sales volume for new energy vehicles was 158 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 135.82%. The proportion of global product sales of Volkswagen, the core customer, decreased from 74.33% in 2020 to 69.73%. BMW tail lights, Renault headlights and Ford headlights will also enter the climbing stage of mass production, which will play a positive role in the growth of the company’s performance. On the basis of continuing to consolidate and steadily develop the mass business, the company has established a British subsidiary, increased investment in overseas markets, actively expanded other high-quality customers, and optimized the market layout and customer structure. At present, the company’s market customer coverage has reached 90%. In terms of Japanese customers, the company introduces GAC Toyota, Suzuki global and other Japanese customer markets on the basis of original customers. In the future, the company will continue to promote the depth and breadth of cooperation with Japanese customers such as Toyota, Honda and Nissan in the global market, and strive to introduce more products of the company into its global supply chain system.
Investment suggestion: the company is the world’s leading vehicle controller leader. Its penetration in the mass market system continues to improve, new customers continue to make breakthroughs, and its products extend from light control to other control system products. With the alleviation of the shortage of automotive chips, the epidemic has been gradually controlled, the production scheduling of vehicle factories has resumed, and the performance is expected to enter a high growth period. Considering the impact of the epidemic and the Russian Ukrainian war on the industrial chain, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 509 million yuan / 722 million yuan / 939 million yuan respectively (the original forecast from 2022 to 2023 was 646 million yuan / 905 million yuan), and the corresponding EPS will be 1.27 yuan / 1.81 yuan / 2.35 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the development of new customers is less than the expected risk; New product introduction is less than expected risk; The risk of global auto sales falling short of expectations; Risk of decline in gross profit margin due to price rise of upstream raw materials
