Yankuang energy ( Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) )
Key investment points
Coal and coal chemical business go hand in hand, and international and Chinese energy giants fly together. Yankuang energy is an international large-scale energy enterprise based on coal production and operation and integrating coal deep processing and comprehensive utilization. It is the largest coal producer in East China and the leading enterprise of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal. Yankuang energy Australia is the largest exclusive coal producer in Australia. Coal: actively lay out three coal bases in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Australia. Coal chemical industry: with many complete coal chemical industry chains such as coal gasification and coal liquefaction, it is the only enterprise in China to master low-temperature Fischer Tropsch synthesis and high-temperature Fischer Tropsch synthesis technology at the same time, and the production capacity of acetic acid ranks in the forefront of the industry. Coal and coal chemical businesses go hand in hand. Yankuang energy actively promotes the transformation and development of coal from single fuel to equal emphasis on fuel and raw materials.
The main coal industry has room for growth, and the momentum for development continues to increase. 1) Production release of mines with incomplete licenses: in the early stage, the production of shilaosu and yingpanhao coal mines was disturbed due to the handling of procedures and licenses. At present, yingpanhao coal mine (12 million tons / year) has made substantial progress in handling procedures, has obtained the mining license, and has entered the state of joint test run in March 2022; Shilawusu coal mine (10 million tons / year) entered the joint test run in July 2019. It has been fully put into operation and released its capacity in succession. 2) Output release of Mines under construction: according to the 2021 annual report, Wanfu Coal Mine will be completed and put into operation in 2024. At that time, the company's in-process production capacity will increase by 1.8 million tons / year, and the equity production capacity will increase by 1.59 million tons / year, which will further contribute to the output increment of the company's coal sector and accelerate the transformation of the company's resource advantage into economic advantage.
The coal chemical business extends to the "high-end value" and the profit trend is good. High temperature Fischer Tropsch synthetic products with energy of 100000 t / A in the future will fill the domestic gap of high-end special wax; Lunan Chemical has become the "chain leader" of Shandong coal based fine chemicals industry chain, and the 300000 t / a caprolactam project has been completed and put into operation. In addition, by the end of 2021, the company has a production capacity of 2.4 million tons / year of methanol ( Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons / year of Yulin Energy Chemical, 6 Sichuan Jinshi Technology Co.Ltd(002951) .8 million tons / year of energy chemical), 1 million tons / year of acetic acid, 380000 tons / year of ethyl acetate, 1 million tons / year of oil and chemical products, 400000 tons / year of ethylene glycol, 100000 tons / year of acetic anhydride, 150000 tons / year of butanol, 80000 tons / year of polyformaldehyde and 240000 tons / year of synthetic ammonia. In terms of capacity under construction, Yulin Energy and chemical methanol has a capacity under construction of 800000 tons / year; The total capacity of polymethoxydimethyl ether under construction is 800000 tons (Yulin Energy and chemical 500000 tons / year, 6 Guangdong Rifeng Electric Cable Co.Ltd(002953) 00000 tons / year). At present, Yankuang energy continues to expand its chemical raw material production base and is actively extending to the high-end chemical industry to create more added value for shareholders.
External dividends, internal incentives, operation quality and efficiency. The five-year dividend commitment demonstrates business confidence. The proportion of cash dividends of Yankuang energy in 20202024 is determined as: the total cash dividends distributed by the company in each fiscal year shall account for about 50% (previously 35%) of the company's net profit after deducting legal reserves in that year, and the cash dividend per share shall not be less than RMB 0.5. The relative proportion and absolute amount are in the forefront of listed coal enterprises, and the willingness to give back to shareholders is full. Improve the long-term incentive mechanism and mobilize the enthusiasm of employees and management. In December 2018, the company announced the A-share equity incentive plan. 469 incentive objects exercised 43.02 million options in three exercise periods, and the assessment year was 20192021. In December 2021, the company announced the A-share equity incentive plan again. 1245 incentive objects exercised 61.74 million options in three exercise periods. The assessment year was 20222024, and the performance assessment conditions of the incentive plan were more challenging.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 181702 billion yuan, 188038 billion yuan and 188432 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 28.253 billion yuan, 32.936 billion yuan and 34.898 billion yuan respectively (the new 2024 profit forecast), the earnings per share will be 5.71 yuan, 6.66 yuan and 7.05 yuan respectively, the current share price will be 34.57 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 6.1x/5.2x/4.9x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the release of coal mine capacity is limited, the coal price has fallen sharply, the release of coal chemical products under construction is blocked, the price of coal chemical products fluctuates greatly, and the information and data used in the research report are not updated in time.
