\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 816 Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) )
Event: the company issued the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 29.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 4.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 49.2%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about 4.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 44.6%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend (before tax) of 0.0491 yuan / share, with a dividend rate of about 50%, which is basically the same as that in the same period of last year.
Passenger traffic picked up and operating revenue rose year-on-year. In 2021, China’s railways completed 2.61 billion passenger trips, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year, returning to 71% of the level in the same period in 19 years. In 2021, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) this line transported 35.291 million passengers, with a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, returning to 66% of the level in the same period of 19 years; The operating mileage of cross line trains was 72.504 million km, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; The operating mileage of trains on the lines under the jurisdiction of Jingfu Anhui Company reached 29.418 million kilometers, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year. In the context of the recovery of railway passenger transport demand, the company’s operating revenue in 2021 was about 29.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and recovery to 89% of the same period in 19 years. Among them, the passenger transport business revenue increased by 31.0% year-on-year, recovered to 84% of the same period in 19 years, and the road network service revenue increased by 9.6% year-on-year and 10.9% compared with the same period in 19 years.
The recovery of demand led to the rise of costs, and the gross profit margin rebounded slightly. Due to the recovery of China’s railway passenger transport demand and the opening of Feihu section of Hefei Hangzhou high-speed railway, the number of responsible and non responsible trains of the company increased. The main operating cost of the company in 2021 was about 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, which was less than the increase of revenue. Affected by this, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was about 35.9%, with a year-on-year increase of about 4.54 PCT.
Jingfu Anhui’s losses narrowed. In 2021, Jingfu Anhui company achieved an operating revenue of about 4.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, and a net loss of about 1.72 billion yuan, narrowed compared with the same period of last year (loss of 2.09 billion yuan).
The market-oriented reform of ticket prices and the adjustment of train diagram will improve the company’s future profitability. After implementing the 5-level floating fare in the first half of 2021, the company continued to optimize and upgrade the fare floating mechanism, and launched a more flexible and more powerful 7-level floating fare in the summer of 2021. In addition, the company fully launched the time counting ticket in 2021 (passengers can take 20 trains with designated departure and arrival stations and seats within the 90 day validity period after purchase), which is conducive to improving the revenue of train transportation. In addition, in 2021, according to the principle of “adjusting structure, improving quality, increasing capacity and expanding benefits”, the company made structural adjustment to the train diagram of the whole line, realized the online operation of Fuxing intelligent EMU, and effectively improved Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) operation efficiency and transportation capacity. Under the condition that the railway passenger transport demand has not fully recovered, the fare marketization reform and operation diagram adjustment have limited impact on the company’s profitability. However, with the continuous recovery of passenger transport demand, the positive impact of the above adjustment on the company’s profitability will be gradually reflected.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic situation in China is repeated, and the pace of operation recovery / improvement of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) main line and Jingfu Anhui slows down; The company’s location advantage is still, the recovery trend of passenger transport demand is determined, and the company’s fare marketization reform and operation diagram adjustment will also improve its profitability in the future. Based on the short-term recurrence of the epidemic in China, and the recovery rhythm of profits may be delayed, we lowered the company’s 22-year net profit forecast by 8% to 9.21 billion yuan, raised the company’s 23-year net profit forecast by 6% to 12.5 billion yuan, and increased the 24-year net profit forecast by 13.8 billion yuan; Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the macroeconomic downturn leads to the decline of passenger travel demand; The transport capacity of Beijing Shanghai line is slowly improved; The change of inter network settlement standard has a negative impact on the company’s revenue; Jingfu Anhui’s profit was lower than expected.
