\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 58 Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) )
Ping An View:
The first share in the probiotic industry, and the prospect of edible probiotic business is promising. The company is mainly engaged in three businesses: compound food additives, edible probiotic products and animal and plant probiotics. The business of compound food additives accounts for nearly 80%, which is the cornerstone of the company's business and has been developing steadily for a long time; At present, the business of edible probiotics accounts for a relatively small proportion, but the growth rate is very fast, which is the main explosive point of the company's future performance.
The scale of probiotic industry continues to grow, and the substitution of domestic strains is gradually becoming a trend. The probiotic industry shows a continuous growth trend, with a growth rate of more than 10% in recent five years. The downstream applications of probiotics are mainly in dairy products and fermented foods, health food / drugs and probiotics for animals and plants. With the deepening of frontier research, probiotics will be expanded to more application scenarios in the future. At present, the probiotic raw material powder used in the downstream of China is mainly imported, and DuPont and kohansen account for about 85% in total; Compared with foreign bacterial powder, domestic bacterial powder is more suitable for Chinese intestinal tract, and Chinese probiotic companies are constantly increasing the research and development of probiotic strains, which is expected to realize the domestic substitution of strains in the future.
The company is an industry leader with strong R & D strength. The probiotic industry has high barriers. The actual controller of the company is a university professor. The core strains of the company are developed by well-known experts and professors in the industry, with strong R & D strength; In recent years, the company has established cooperative relations with Jiangzhong, xiaokuihua, Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) and other pharmaceutical companies. The demand expansion drives the capacity utilization to maintain a high level. In the future, it is expected to further drive the increase of income through capacity expansion.
Profit forecast: we predict that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 373 million yuan, 453 million yuan and 544 million yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 109 million yuan, 141 million yuan and 169 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.74 yuan, 0.95 yuan and 1.14 yuan. The PE corresponding to the current stock price will be 36.0 times, 28.0 times and 23.3 times respectively. Based on the high growth rate of probiotic industry, as well as the company's strong scientific research strength, strain advantages and leading position in the industry, the "recommended" rating is given for the first time.
Risk tips: 1) business contraction risk of existing customers; 2) Risk of increased competition; 3) Key customer concentration risk; 4) Risk of recurrent outbreaks; 5) Food safety risks.
