\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 50 Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) )
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022, and the profit was + 21% / + 34% year-on-year respectively. The company leads the domestic replacement of wind power bearings, and the shipment volume continues to increase. It plans to issue convertible bonds to raise funds and expand to the field of gearbox bearings; Maintain the overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
The profit in 2021 increased by 21% year-on-year: the company released the annual report of 2021. The annual revenue was 2.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.98%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 514 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, and the deduction of non net profit was 484 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.27%. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 577 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.42% and a month on month decrease of 9.7%; Deduct 108 million yuan of non-profit, a year-on-year decrease of 12.74% and a month on month decrease of 29.28%. The performance of the company's annual report is in line with expectations.
2022q1 profit increased by 34% year-on-year: the company also released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing a revenue of 644 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.66%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 97.7 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.97%; The non-profit after deduction was 127 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.95%. The company's performance in the first quarter exceeded market expectations.
Expansion of shipment scale and improvement of profitability: in 2021, the company sold 19474 sets of bearing products, with a year-on-year increase of 22.24%, and the average settlement unit price of products was RMB 116100, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%; The gross profit margin increased by 0.37pcts to 32.15% year-on-year, and in 2022q1, the gross profit margin continued to increase to 34.42%, 7.11pcts year-on-year and 5.45pcts month on month. At present, the company has successfully developed 5.5MW and 6.25mw megawatt spindles, and began to supply Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) in batches. The product structure is expected to be further optimized.
The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise funds and expand the territory of gearbox bearings: the net amount of funds raised by the company plans to issue convertible bonds will not exceed 1.355 billion yuan, of which 995 million yuan will be used for gearbox bearings and precision parts projects. After the project is completed, the annual output of gearbox precision parts will be 57500, corresponding to the consumption of 2000 sets of wind power gearbox, of which 500 sets of capacity can be matched with 6-10mw wind power gearbox. The project is expected to ramp up production capacity from 2024 to full production in 2026. After completion, it can further enrich the company's product types and open greater market space for the company.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company's annual report and industry demand, we adjusted the company's predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 3.87/5.36/6.98 yuan (the original forecast from 2022 to 2023 was 3.75/5.04 yuan), corresponding to a P / E ratio of 26.1/18.9/14.5 times; Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The expansion of new customers does not meet expectations; The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; Price competition exceeds expectations; Large scale cost reduction does not meet expectations; New product development fails to meet expectations; Wind power demand does not meet expectations; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
