\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 762 Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles Co.Ltd(002762) )
We have been deeply involved in the mother infant track for many years and expanded the field of Medical & medical beauty services. Founded in 1996, the company is mainly engaged in medium and high-end mother and baby products. It has three independent brands: labibaby, ilovebay and babylabi. It was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2015. After listing, the company has continuously enriched the market layout of mother and baby segments, subscribed to the Asia Pacific International Women, infants and children industry fund in 2016 and invested in mirlele dairy in 2017 to help the company indirectly enter the field of mother and baby intelligent appliances and baby food. In 2018, the company put forward the strategy of "product + service + Internet", and cut into the medical & Medical Beauty track through equity acquisition in 2021 to create a new model of "maternal and infant products + medical and medical beauty services".
The poor performance of some investment targets has brought fluctuations in net profit. After the listing of the company, the income side fluctuated slightly and the net profit side fluctuated greatly from 2015 to 2019. In 2018, due to the poor performance of Jiangtong media, the investment target, and the provision for large asset impairment, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 57%. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the income / net profit attributable to parent decreased by 28.55% / 30.05% respectively. In 2021, the income decreased slightly by 4.41%. However, due to the difficulties in the operation of mirlele, the company's asset impairment loss and investment loss of 44 million yuan due to the sale of the investment project, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased sharply by 57%.
The growth of the main business of maternal and infant consumer goods was slightly weak. Due to the decline of one-child fertility rate, maternal and infant consumption has been relatively weak in recent years, and the income growth of maternal and infant consumer goods, the main business of the company, has slowed down, cagr4.5% in 20152019 65% and 29.29% / 4.92% respectively in 2020 / 2021. 1) In terms of channels, offline revenue has declined continuously in recent years, and online revenue has increased steadily and its proportion has gradually increased. In 2021, the revenue from online / offline / other channels accounted for 31.15% / 67.78% / 1.07% and + 19.07% / - 12.23% / - 12.86% respectively. 2) From the perspective of endogenous extension of offline branches, the number of stores continues to shrink and the store efficiency tends to stabilize. Offline channels are dominated by franchising (direct sales / franchising revenue accounts for 25% / 75%). At the end of 2021, there were 917 stores (112 direct sales + 805 franchisees), 98 net closed stores (26 direct sales + 72 franchisees), and the store efficiency was 221200 yuan (4528 direct sales / 189000 respectively), a year-on-year increase of - 2.85% (direct sales + 0.27%, franchising - 1.81%).
"Mother and baby + medical treatment and medical beauty" form a two wheel drive of "product + service". In 2021, the company formulated the strategy of "maternal and infant products + medical and medical beauty services" and laid out the central areas of medical beauty, maternity and confinement. On April 2021, it acquired 36% equity of Han Fei's investment, participated in the investment and establishment of medical beauty industry fund, and participated in the medical beauty track. On August 2021, it invested in the establishment of maternity hospital and confinement center. At present, the maternity hospital building has entered the internal decoration stage and the project has been steadily promoted. Hanfei investment holds five medical and beauty institutions (all located in Guangdong). Its Guangzhou Hanfei obtained the qualification of the only level III medical and plastic surgery hospital in Guangdong Province in 2021. Hanfei investment realized a net profit of about - 5621 / 11860000 yuan in 2019 / 2020. According to the gambling agreement, Hanfei investment promised that the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 / 2022 would not be less than 50 / 60 million yuan respectively, and the performance in 2021 would be 29.7 million yuan Due to repeated outbreaks in Dawan district where the agency is located, the promised performance has not been realized.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company has been deeply engaged in the maternal and infant industry for many years, and its performance is affected by the sluggish terminal consumption and short-term investment losses. In 2021, the company will layout the medical & medical beauty business and cut into the medical beauty track with strong demand and rapid growth, which is expected to provide a new driving force for growth. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 171.89% / 16.67% / 15.90% from 2022 to 2024, with a corresponding PE of 74 / 64 / 55x. The valuation is high, and the "neutral" rating is given for the first coverage.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated, the consumption of mother and baby industry is weak, and the development of medical and medical beauty business is less than expected.
