\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 516 Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) )
Event overview: the company released its 2021 annual report: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.1%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 774 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 101.4%. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 1.083 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4% and a month on month decrease of 10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 211 million yuan, an increase of 43.6% year-on-year and a decrease of 43.1% month on month; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 81 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 249.4% and a month on month decrease of 65.3%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Comments:
① sales volume: in 2021, the sales volume of carbon products increased by 7.35% year-on-year. The output of carbon products of the company increased slightly. In 2021, the output of carbon products was 196300 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 5.25%, and the sales volume of carbon products was 197900 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 7.35%. In terms of iron concentrate powder, the company produced 452800 tons of iron concentrate powder in 2021, a year-on-year increase of - 7.83%. Due to the sharp decline in the price of iron ore in the second half of 2021, we judged that the company controlled the sales of iron concentrate powder in the third and fourth quarters. The sales of iron concentrate powder in 2021 was only 319000 tons, a year-on-year increase of - 36.49%, and the ending inventory of iron concentrate powder increased to 135100 tons.
② price: the price of graphite electrode rebounded at the bottom, and the gross profit margin increased by 4.80pct to 33.51% in 2021. The supply and demand pattern of graphite electrode industry has gradually improved, and the price bottom has rebounded. In 2021, the average price of ultra-high power graphite electrode was + 14.67% year-on-year. Although the increase of raw materials was greater (needle coke price was + 55.92% year-on-year, petroleum coke price was + 87.11% year-on-year), due to the company's layout of raw material end capacity and the self-sufficiency rate of equity raw materials close to 60%, the company effectively ironed the risk of raw material price fluctuation. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin increased by 4.80pct to 33.51%. Quarterly, the price of 21q4 graphite electrode continued to rise, and the company's gross profit margin increased by 1.75pct month on month to 35.27%.
Future focus:
① the "double carbon" opens up the demand space, and the tightening of capacity approval boosts the long-term upward price of graphite electrode. In order to effectively reduce carbon emissions in the iron and steel industry, the policy encourages the proportion of electric furnace steel to increase, and the demand space of the industry is broad. Graphite electrode itself is a high energy consuming industry. Affected by policies such as dual control of energy consumption, some provinces and cities have issued policies to restrict the approval of medium and low-end production capacity. The inflection point of the industry has gradually emerged, and the price of graphite electrode is expected to rise for a long time.
② ultra high power graphite electrode projects have been put into operation, and the low position of the tap is more stable. The company has a graphite electrode production capacity of 214000 tons (including 49000 tons of equity production capacity of Baofang carbon materials) and 30000 tons of carbon bricks, which is in a leading position in China. With the 50000 ton relocation project of Hefei carbon, the 50000 ton new project of Meishan Fangda, the 25000 ton relocation project of Chengdu Rongguang and the 30000 ton special graphite project of Chengdu carbon gradually put into operation, the leading position is more stable. In terms of product structure, since the graphite electrode projects put into operation are mainly ultra-high power product series, the proportion of high-end graphite electrode products of the company will be further increased in the future.
Investment suggestion: several projects under construction of the company gradually release production capacity, the fundamentals of graphite electrode industry are about to have an inflection point, the price of graphite electrode is expected to rise for a long time, and the performance of the company can be released. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.575/2.191/2.925 billion, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 7.34 on April 22, 2022, and PE will be 18 / 13 / 10 times from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning: the development of electric furnace steelmaking is not as expected; The progress of the project is less than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
