\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
Core view
21 years ended smoothly, and 22q1 maintained high growth. The company released its annual report for 21 years and the first quarterly report for 22 years, with a revenue of 4.969 billion yuan (YoY + 83.8%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.246 billion yuan (YoY + 114.3%); 22q1’s revenue was 1.884 billion yuan (YoY + 83.3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 531 million yuan (YoY + 75.7%), and the performance maintained a high growth trend.
Driven by the dual brand strategy, the channel network continues to expand. In the past 21 years, the company’s medium and high-grade liquor revenue was 3.874 billion yuan (YoY + 81.9%), and the volume and price increased by 64.7% and 10.4% respectively; The revenue of low-grade liquor was 703 million yuan (YoY + 218.7%), and the volume and price increased by 218.5% and 0.1% respectively. The company promoted the dual brand strategy of shede and Tuopai, and the sales volume increased by 60.1% and 192.0% respectively in 21 years. 22q1 medium and high-grade liquor and low-grade liquor achieved revenue of 1.575 billion yuan (YoY + 91.0%) and 208 million yuan (YoY + 98.7%) respectively, continuing the high growth trend. 22q1, the revenue inside and outside the province reached 455 million yuan (YoY + 72.6%) and 1.202 billion yuan (YoY + 112.4%) respectively. The market outside the province accelerated its expansion, accounting for 6.5pct to 67.4%. At the end of 21 and 22q1, the number of dealers was 2252 (YoY + 27.9%) and 2409 (YoY + 24.1%) respectively, growing steadily and the channel network continued to expand; 22q1 single dealer generated about 688000 yuan (YoY + 60.9%), which is expected to benefit from the increase in sales of single dealers and the increase in contribution of large dealers.
The gross profit margin increased significantly, the cost investment increased, and the growth foundation was consolidated. The gross profit margin of the company in 21 years is 77.81% (YoY + 1.95pct); The gross profit margin of medium and high-grade liquor and low-grade liquor is 87.3% (YoY + 1.0pct) and 49.8% (YoY + 8.1pct), which is expected to mainly benefit from product price increase and structural improvement. 22q1 company’s gross profit margin is 80.83% (YoY + 3.23pct); The sales expense ratio is 18.46% (YoY + 3.92 PCT) and the management expense ratio is 10.46% (YoY + 1.64 PCT). It is expected that the increase in advertising expenses and team incentives will consolidate the foundation of performance growth; Taxes and surcharges account for 15.13% of revenue (YoY + 0.47pct); Overall, the net profit margin of 22q1 company is 28.39% (yoy-1.67pct).
It is proposed to invest in capacity projects to enhance long-term competitiveness and look forward to the growth space of the company. The company announced that it plans to invest 7.05 billion yuan in the production and capacity expansion project. After the completion of the project, the annual output of raw wine will be increased by about 60000 tons, the storage capacity of raw wine will be increased by about 342500 tons, and the annual production capacity of koji making will be increased by about 50000 tons. The expansion of base liquor production capacity is the core driving force for liquor enterprises to improve product quality and promote brand upgrading. Capacity projects will enhance the competitiveness of the company in a long period of time. Based on the old wine strategy, the company is steady and steady, and is willing to lay out the sub high-end price belt with taste and wisdom. Tuopai focuses on popular wine and medium and high-end price belt to promote the comprehensive rejuvenation of the brand. After Fosun became the owner, the operation and management of the company has improved significantly and is optimistic about the long-term growth space.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Raise the revenue and gross profit margin, and predict that the earnings per share of the company in 22-24 years will be 5.63 yuan, 7.54 yuan and 9.47 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 5.48 yuan and 7.11 yuan); Combined with comparable companies, 31 times PE in 22 years was given, corresponding to the target price of 174.53 yuan, and the rating was raised to buy.
Risk warning: consumption upgrading is less than expected, market competition intensifies, and food safety incident risks.
