\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 816 Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) )
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the mother fell on the top edge of the notice, and the repeated epidemic had a real impact
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was 469 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.0%. We estimate that the net loss attributable to the parent company of Jingfu Anhui company, which controls 65% of the whole year, is 1.119 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of Beijing Shanghai parent company in 2021 is 5.934 billion yuan.
At the traffic volume end, there is still room for short-term epidemic disturbance in the medium and long term
In 2021 Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) this line transported 35.291 million passengers, with a year-on-year increase of 27.1%; The operating mileage of cross line vehicles was 72.504 million train kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In addition, the operating mileage of Jingfu Anhui in 2021 was 29.418 million train kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%. On the whole, the covid-19 epidemic in Nanjing in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 had a superimposed impact. The capital advocated not to leave Beijing unless necessary and strictly controlled the holding of national activities in Beijing. The tight access control had a certain impact on Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) performance, but we analyzed that the cross line vehicle scheduling formed a certain support for the company’s profits. In the first and second quarter of 2022, the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta repeated, and the control of personnel flow in the capital is still relatively strict, and there are still disturbances in the short term.
In the medium and long term, the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) traffic volume still has room for growth after the epidemic is repaired in the medium and long term. The growth of traffic volume will be mainly driven by three aspects: 1) the operation of Fuxing no. of Changbian formation; 2) Weaving density at departure time; 3) Optimize the cross line vehicle structure of this line and improve the matching efficiency of train numbers.
Freight rate side, expecting the gradual release of elasticity
Since December 2020, the company has started the floating fare mechanism and implemented the five grade fare and fast and slow train system as a whole; In June 2021, seven levels of fares will be further implemented, and the fast and slow train system and peak valley system will be implemented at the same time; From March 2022, the number of tickets will be purchased, and the degree of marketization of ticket prices will be further liberalized. We believe that the subjective conditions for the marketization of the company’s ticket price have been met. If the market demand tends to be strong after the end of the epidemic, the overall rate will maintain a good trend, and the ticket price elasticity is expected to be further released.
The cost side is relatively controllable, and the cost reduction and efficiency increase are continuously promoted
In terms of entrusted transportation management fees (accounting for 26.8% of operating costs in 2021), the settlement unit price is based on the unit price in 2021. It is estimated that the annual growth rate from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.275% on the basis of the previous year (6.5% on the basis of the previous year from 2019 to 2021).
In terms of energy expenditure (accounting for 15.7% of operating costs in 2021), the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Power in January 2022 to jointly explore power market-oriented cooperation, or is expected to maintain the stability of operating power volume and price; In addition, expand the scope of contract energy management and extend the experience of contract energy management of Nanjing South Railway Station to the pilot of Tianjin west railway station and Zaozhuang railway station.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.986 billion yuan, 11.495 billion yuan and 13.022 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 40.1 times, 20.9 times and 18.4 times of the current share price PE respectively. Still pay attention to the medium and long-term volume and price growth space of the company and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: repeated disturbance of epidemic situation; The loss reduction of Jingfu Anhui was less than expected; The recovery of passenger flow was less than expected.
