\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
Tax free sales of Hainan outlying islands: About 60.2 billion yuan in 21 years, and more than 16 billion yuan in 22q1
Hainan passenger LAN continues to be affected by the epidemic: in 2104, the passenger volume of Sanya airport and Haikou airport was - 33% - 34% year-on-year respectively; 2201 was - 15% and - 3% year-on-year respectively, of which the passenger volume of Sanya and Haikou airports was + 25% and + 30% year-on-year from January to February, and - 73% and - 46% year-on-year in March.
Tax free sales in outlying islands: 1) 2021: according to the data of Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce, the total sales of 10 duty-free stores in Hainan in 2021 was 60.17 billion yuan / + 84%, of which the tax-free sales was 50.49 billion yuan / + 83%; 9.677 million person times of duty-free shopping / + 73%; The customer unit price is 6218 yuan / + 6%. Among them, the duty-free sales, shopping trips and passenger unit price of 21q4 outlying islands supervised by Haikou customs were 13.9 billion yuan / + 22%, 1.58 million person times / - 7% and 8791 yuan / + 32% respectively. 2) 2022q1: according to the data of Hainan Department of Commerce, the sales of Q1 duty-free stores exceeded 16 billion yuan, of which the daily average during the Spring Festival exceeded 300 million yuan / + 150%, but the daily average fell to about 100 million yuan in March due to the epidemic. On a monthly basis, according to the data of Haikou customs, from January to march of 22 years, the average daily tax-free sales of outlying islands were 170 million yuan, 250 million yuan and 90 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 38%, + 50% and - 51% respectively; The average daily shopping trips were 21000, 27000 and 12000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 25%, + 45% and - 52% respectively; The unit price of Q1 customers was 8375 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%.
Calculation of the actual net profit attributable to the parent company of China tax exemption: the actual operating income attributable to the parent company in 21 years is about 7.72 billion yuan; From January to February of 22, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company rebounded to 16.9%
1) Revenue: the revenue of 21q4 company is 18.18 billion yuan / + 4%, and the annual revenue is 67.68 billion yuan / + 29%; The income from January to February of 22 years was 13.1 billion yuan / + 20%, and the income from March was 3.7 billion yuan / - 49%, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic + the closure of Haitangwan store in Sanya for 4.5 days.
2) gross profit margin: it has declined quarter by quarter in 21 years, accounting for 33.4% in the whole year, mainly due to the increased discount in the second half of the year; Since the beginning of 22 years, the company has paid attention to the assessment of profit indicators, and 22q1 has rebounded sharply to 34.0% month on month.
3) calculation and calculation of the actual net profit attributable to the parent company: after reducing the impact of Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) rent, capital airport rent and income tax preference return, we calculate the standard according to the 25% tax rate and add back the inventory falling price reserves. We calculate that the company's actual operating net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 under the same standard is about 7.72 billion yuan, and the total impact of non recurring profit and loss + outlying island tax-free income tax preference is about 1.88 billion yuan; Quarterly, the net profit attributable to the parent company actually obtained in the operation of exemption in 21q4 and 22q1 is about 1.10 billion yuan and 2.34 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 6.1% and 13.9% respectively; Among them, the actual parent net interest rate rose to 16.9% from January to February in 22 years, and temporarily fell to 3.5% in March due to the nationwide epidemic.
Split the performance channels of China tax exemption: the tax exemption on outlying islands has increased rapidly, and the scale of daily direct mail is relatively stable
2021: tax free sales on outlying islands increased rapidly, and the scale of daily direct mail was basically stable. The revenue of Sanya Haitangwan store, Haimian and RISHANG Shanghai in 2021 was 35.5 billion yuan / + 67%, 16 billion yuan / + 61% and 12.5 billion yuan / - 9% respectively, contributing about 6.69 billion yuan, 1.45 billion yuan and 690 million yuan to the net profit attributable to the parent respectively, and the corresponding net interest rates attributable to the parent were 18.9%, 9.1% and 5.5% respectively.
22q1: the profit margin rose sharply from January to February, and the performance was under pressure in March due to the impact of the epidemic. The revenue of Sanya Haitangwan store, Haimian and RISHANG Shanghai 22q1 was about 10.7 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan respectively, contributing about 2.4 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan to the net profit attributable to the parent respectively, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent was about 22.8%, 10.7% and 7.5% respectively, which rebounded sharply month on month.
Outlook: the passenger flow of 22q2 may still be under pressure due to the epidemic, and there will be no expansion of new stores in Hainan in the middle of 22 years, with high growth expected
22q2 Hainan passenger flow may still be affected by the epidemic. The local epidemic occurred in Sanya in the middle and early April, and the Haitangwan store in Sanya was closed for nearly 9 days (4.2 PM - 4.11 AM); Under the influence of the national epidemic, some provinces and cities proposed not to go out of the city on May Day, and 22q2 Hainan passenger flow, duty-free sales or pressure.
China free will continue to usher in a large number of new stores in Hainan in 22-24 years, and the subsequent high growth can be expected. In December 2021, Meilan Airport Phase II was put into operation, and the Meilan Airport Phase II duty-free shop operated by Haimian opened simultaneously, with a business area of about 9300 square meters. In 2022, the duty-free shop of Sanya Phoenix Airport operated by China tax exemption plans to expand its capacity by 5000 square meters; Haikou international duty-free city is expected to open at the end of September, with a business area of more than 80000 square meters. At that time, it will surpass Sanya Haitangwan store and become the world's largest single duty-free store. In addition, the No. 2 project of Sanya international duty free city phase I is under construction, and the duty-free commercial part is expected to open in 23-24 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the company's revenue in 22-24 years is about 81.98 billion yuan, 115.07 billion yuan and 154.21 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is about 10.11 billion yuan, 14.86 billion yuan and 19.28 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the target price of 245.0 yuan / share in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: passenger flow is less than expected, sales are less than expected, etc.
