\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 379 Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) )
Core view
Benefiting from the expansion of price difference of main products and other benefits, the company’s performance increased significantly in 2022. The company released the annual report for 2021: benefiting from the price support of upstream raw materials and the improvement of downstream product demand, the overall price of the company’s main products increased year-on-year, the price difference between products and raw materials expanded, and the overall profitability improved: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.048 billion yuan (year-on-year + 48.8%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 536 million yuan (year-on-year + 141.69%). In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.31 billion yuan (year-on-year + 122.79%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 293 million yuan (year-on-year + 327168%). On the whole, the third generation refrigerant is still at the bottom of the cycle, and the company has still achieved significant growth in performance against the trend, exceeding our previous expectations.
The profitability of second-generation refrigerant products (such as R142b) has been significantly improved, waiting for the cycle reversal of third-generation refrigerant. In 2021, the average selling price (excluding tax) of fluorine refrigerant and hydrogen fluoride products of the company reached 2353923 yuan and 759628 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 64.64% and 34.64% respectively. The price increase of the product side was slightly higher than that of the raw material cost side, and the gross profit of the company was significantly repaired. At the same time, from Q1 to Q4 in 2021, the gross profit margin of the company will be repaired quarterly: 16.74%, 17.79%, 17.73% and 23.18% respectively. At present, the capacity of the company’s second-generation refrigerants R22, R142b and R141b is 14400 tons, 4200 tons and 35600 tons respectively, and the profit of quota products is good. Among them, R142b, as the raw material of PVDF, is in short supply in the market. In 2021, the price of R142b products of the company increased significantly and the profitability increased significantly year-on-year. The third generation refrigerant quota window period will end at the end of 2022. With the deepening of supply side structural reform, we are optimistic that the third generation refrigerant is expected to usher in an inflection point of boom reversal.
Carry out integrated investment layout of industrial chain in the direction of fluorine refrigerant, fluorine fine chemicals and fluorine polymer. In recent years, the company has actively arranged business fields such as new materials and new energy, and extended to the downstream high value-added field of fluorine chemical industry through its subsidiaries. On April 21, according to the announcement of the company, the company plans to change some of the investment projects raised funds to build “Zhejiang Sanmei 5000 t / a polyperfluoroethylene propylene (FEP) and 5000 t / a polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) projects” to enter the field of fluoropolymers. In 2022, the company will focus on the construction of lifsi project and actively promote the construction of the above two-phase fluoropolymer project. Fujian Dongying, a subsidiary, will strive to promote the pilot production of 6000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, 100 tons of high-purity phosphorus pentafluoride, 2000 tons of hexafluoroethane and AHF expansion project.
Risk tip: weak demand for fluorine chemical industry; The production progress of the project is less than expected; Sharp decline in product prices, etc.
Investment advice: maintain the “buy” rating. Fluorination will gradually recover from the bottom. As the industry leader, the company will lead the development of the industry. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 793 / 1115 / 1479 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 47.8% / 40.6% / 32.7%; Diluted EPS = 1.30/1.83/2.42 yuan, corresponding to the current share price, corresponding to PE = 14.4/10.2/7.7x.
