\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 779 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) )
Performance review
On April 22, the company released the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of 22 years. In the 21st year, the revenue reached 4.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64.0%. In the first quarter of the year, the revenue was 1.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 363 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 13.5%.
Business analysis
The performance in the first quarter was lower than expected, which was due to external risk + cost side disturbance. The company released its annual report for 21 years, which is consistent with the performance disclosed in the previous performance forecast. The company also released the first quarterly report of 22 years, and the revenue side / profit side were lower than expected. 1) Revenue side: at the end of the first quarter, the company's contractual liabilities were 840 million yuan, and the reservoir was still deep; Year on year + 14.8% after considering revenue + contract liabilities; The sales revenue was 1.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.4%; In terms of subregions, East China, which accounts for a high proportion outside the province, is seriously disturbed by the epidemic, and the revenue of new channels is also dragged down by - 48% year-on-year. 2) Profit side: the pressure is mainly due to the disturbance of expenses. The sales expenses in the first quarter increased by 140 million yuan (sales expense rate + 7.3pct), which is the increase of publicity expenses (ice snow cooperation); The administrative expenses increased by 30 million yuan (administrative expense rate + 1.6pct), which is the increase of employee salary.
Pay attention to the effect of product structure upgrading and post epidemic demand replenishment. In terms of products, in the past 21 years, the company's revenue of high-grade wine / medium-grade wine was + 54% / + 34% year-on-year respectively, and the ton price was + 10% / - 3% year-on-year respectively. The structure was optimized. In the first quarter, the company's high-end wine revenue was 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12%; The gross profit margin was 85.3%, year-on-year -0.3pct; Considering that the ton price of wholesale channels is + 2% year-on-year, but the gross profit margin is -0.4pct, it is expected that the structural upgrading will be disturbed in stages. Recently, the company has promoted the upgrading and rejuvenation of the well platform, and high-end sales companies have increased their investment since 21q4 (currently recruiting nearly 200 merchants). We expect that the subsequent product structure optimization is still expected to be promoted.
Under the disturbance of external risks, the company plans to have a revenue / profit growth rate of 15% in 22 years. We suggest to continuously track the demand release rhythm in peak seasons. If the demand release is better in peak seasons such as the Dragon Boat Festival, the Mid Autumn Festival and the national day, we expect the company's 22-year plan to be completed with high quality. We are still optimistic about the high-end circle building trend under the company's sports marketing, and the price band of No. 8 and well platform is still the price with relatively high growth rate in the industry.
Profit adjustment
In view of the impact of the company's shipment rhythm under the disturbance of short-term external risks and the slowdown of consumption upgrading under the medium and long-term stable growth, we reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company by 14% / 18% in 22 / 23 years respectively. We expect the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 22-24 years to be 17% / 22% / 19% respectively; EPS is 2.88/3.52/4.20 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 28x / 23x / 19x, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risks, macroeconomic downside risks, intensified regional market competition and food safety problems.
