\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 017 Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) )
Key investment points
Full order + continuous high performance is expected:
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 440 million yuan (year-on-year + 104.8%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 190 million yuan (year-on-year + 130.6%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 150 million yuan (year-on-year + 214.5%). Among them, the Q4 revenue was 120 million yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 47 million yuan, which decreased slightly compared with Q3, mainly due to: 1) the manufacturing boom declined due to the double limit, and some downstream were affected; 2) Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry orders are habitually reflected in the first three quarters, and Q4 orders generally fell month on month compared with Q3. In terms of business, the revenue of harmonic reducer and metal parts business was 420 million yuan (year-on-year + 104.3%), and the sales volume of harmonic reducer reached 257000 units (year-on-year + 131.5%); The revenue of Mechatronics business was 20 million yuan (year-on-year + 176.2%), and the sales volume of mechatronics products reached 4629 units (year-on-year + 69.4%).
At the end of 2021, the company's contractual liabilities amounted to 5.7 million yuan (year-on-year + 52.6%), mainly due to the company's sufficient orders and the increase in advance payment. In addition, according to our calculation, there is still a supply gap of 27.5/12.175000 units in the global harmonic reducer Market from 2022 to 2024; At the same time, under the catalysis of the epidemic, the trend of "machine replacement" is expected to accelerate, so the harmonic reducer industry will continue to be in short supply in the short term. Under the capacity expansion, the company's market share is expected to increase rapidly and its performance is expected to continue to increase.
The profitability has been continuously improved, and the scale effect + lean management has reduced the expense rate:
In 2021, the gross profit margin was 52.5% (year-on-year + 5.3pct), of which the gross profit margin of harmonic reducer, metal parts and Mechatronics business was 53.2% / 37.5%, respectively + 5.6pct/3.0pct year-on-year, which was still significantly improved against the background of the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. The net profit margin of sales in 2021 was 42.9% (YoY + 5.3pct), which was mainly due to the scale effect & lean management. During the period, the expense rate decreased to 11.1% (YoY -5.3pct), of which the sales / management / financial expense rate was -0.2 / - 2.0 / - 1.3pct respectively. In addition, the company invested 41.16 million yuan in R & D (year-on-year + 71.3%), accounting for 9.3% of revenue.
At the end of 2021, the company's operating cash flow was 46 million yuan (year-on-year - 64%), mainly due to the expansion of the company's business scale and the increase of operating cash outflow related to production and R & D.
New products + new applications broaden the long-term growth boundary:
At present, the main downstream of the company is still Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and is gradually expanding non Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) applications: ① Mechatronics: it mainly integrates servo, harmonic reducer, sensor and other parts into modules to improve the comprehensive performance of products. At present, the company mainly focuses on the downstream of CNC machine tools. We predict that the market scale of harmonic reducer for CNC machine tools in China from 2021 to 2025 will be CAGR = 41%, which will add more increment to the harmonic reducer Market. ② Electro hydraulic servo: electro hydraulic servo system is an automatic control equipment with liquid as power transmission medium. It has the characteristics of fast response speed, large power mass ratio and large load resistance stiffness. It is the most ideal driving equipment for mobile Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) equipment. In the future, with the quadruped Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) gradually opening the prelude to industrialization, the electro-hydraulic servo system can be expected in the future. ③ E series harmonic reducer: through the comprehensive optimization of harmonic tooth shape, meshing, heat treatment and sealing structure, it can improve the oil leakage resistance of products and reduce the operating noise. It is suitable for high-end fields such as semiconductor and medical treatment.
In 2021, the company has achieved revenue of 24 million yuan (year-on-year + 231.6%) in the field of CNC machine tools and 14 million yuan (year-on-year + 237.3%) in the field of medical devices, accounting for 8.5% of the total revenue. In addition, there are small batch shipments in the field of semiconductor equipment. The application of these new products and new fields will further broaden the company's long-term growth boundary.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is in a period of rapid growth. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 3.05 (up 1%) / 4.21 (up 0.5%) / 551 million yuan. The current market value corresponding to PE is 33 / 24 / 18 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is lower than expected; The development of new business is not as expected.
