\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 918 Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. The revenue was 6.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 315 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.41%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 2.059 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -102 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 154.20%.
The annual revenue increased rapidly, and the strategic engineering channel increased by 61.83% year-on-year. In 2021, the growth rate of Q1-Q4 revenue was 105.62% / 59.95% / 19.25% / 34.80% respectively. The growth rate of Q3 restricted power production slowed down. In terms of distribution channels, the revenue of distribution channels in 2021 was 3.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.70%; The revenue of strategic engineering channel was 3.416 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 61.83%. The company maintained strategic cooperation with major real estate customers, and deepened cooperation with small B channels such as core home decoration companies, Internet home decoration, rock board home customization, rock board furniture enterprises and traditional stones.
Energy and raw materials rose sharply, gross profit was under pressure, and impairment provision affected the performance of 21 years. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s sales was 29.11%, with a year-on-year change of -5.18pct. It is mainly due to the sharp rise in the prices of energy fuels such as natural gas and coal, and the rise in raw materials such as embryo and glaze. In terms of products, the gross profit margin of porcelain glazed tiles / porcelain unglazed tiles / non porcelain glazed tiles / ceramic sectors and thin ceramic tiles were 29.91% / 31.18% / 17.35% / 36.22% respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 6.45 / + 0.39 / + 0.19 / – 12.35pct respectively. In terms of sub channels, the gross profit margin of distribution channels in 2021 was 24.86%, down 8.7 percentage points year-on-year; The gross profit margin of strategic engineering channels was 33.55%, down 1.67 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin on sales was 4.64%, with a year-on-year change of -7.00pct. In the whole year of 21, the credit impairment loss was 186 million yuan and the asset impairment loss was 33 million yuan.
Affected by cash receipts and raw material procurement, operating cash flow is under pressure. The net cash flow from operating activities of the company in 2021 was – 84 million yuan, a year-on-year change of – 660 million yuan. 1) Cash to cash ratio: the company’s cash to cash ratio was 90.05%, with a year-on-year change of -1198pct. At the end of 21, the balance of accounts and notes receivable of the company was 1.677 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.05%, and the balance of other accounts receivable was 243 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 168%, mainly due to the increase of margin in the current period; 2) Cash ratio: the company’s cash ratio was 92.08%, a year-on-year change of – 17.7pct. At the end of the year, the balance of accounts payable and notes payable of the company was 2.521 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.19%. At the end of 2021, the inventory balance was 2.081 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.52%, of which the book balance of raw materials increased by 57.71%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company’s distribution and strategic engineering channels are driven by two wheels. In recent years, the company has reached strategic cooperation with a number of real estate developers, expanded small B channels such as decoration and home decoration, and the proportion of Engineering revenue continues to increase. In 2021, Gao’an base will be laid out, the production capacity and regional layout will be improved, and the performance flexibility of the company will be increased. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 615 million, RMB 930 million and RMB 1.216 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 11x / 7X / 5x respectively. For the first time, give a “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in the price of raw materials; The risk of fluctuations in the real estate industry; Market competition intensifies risks; The risk of insufficient provision for credit impairment losses.
