\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
The epidemic repeatedly superimposed the high base of Q1 in 2021, and the performance of Q1 in 2022 declined
The company released the first quarter report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 575 million yuan (- 2.91%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 61 million yuan (- 25.15%), and the non net profit deducted was 49 million yuan (- 27.28%). Under the influence of factors such as high performance base in the first quarter of 2021 and repeated epidemics, the company's 2022q1 performance declined, which was basically in line with expectations. Considering the impact of the epidemic, we slightly lowered the profit forecast for 20222024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 301 (- 0.07) / 4.09 (- 0.08) / 585 (- 0.22) million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 233 (- 0.05) / 3.16 (- 0.06) / 4.52 (- 0.17) yuan / share respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 26.4/19.4/13.6 times respectively. We are optimistic about the prospect of transformation and upgrading of the company and maintain the "buy" rating.
Focus on making core categories bigger and stronger, and the layout of the whole industrial chain helps the rapid recovery of performance
In 2021, the company has completed the streamlining of SKU. In the future, it will focus on five core categories, including " Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) " spicy brine snacks, "31 ° fresh" deep-sea snacks, "bean dad" baked foods, "potato puzzle" baked potato chips and dried fruits, and strive to create large single products. At the same time, with the help of the "Experimental Factory" model of the whole industrial chain layout, the company's products continue to innovate and iterate. In 2021, the company successfully developed 38 new products, such as fruit and vegetable sea fish stick, cod crab willow, hand torn crab willow, deep-sea cod sausage, COD stick, COD sausage, large lotus root, hand torn duck neck and hot pot vegetarian belly. In the future, the gradual volume of these new products is expected to form a scale effect and help the company's core category performance achieve rapid growth.
The coordinated development of bulk weighing and quantitative loading opens up the growth space of the company through the development of all channels
Looking forward to 2022, the company will continue to promote the business strategy of "collaborative development of bulk weighing products and quantitative loading products, covering all channels with different product combinations", and set clear channel expansion objectives for the four business divisions respectively: doubling the new sales point plan of the salty business division; The baking division plans to launch 10000 new counters and develop 35000 outlets; The quantitative packaging business department will focus on 16 core cities and cover 100000 terminals; The circulation Division will expand and strengthen the market. Meanwhile, the online business channel will use tiktok and many bonus opportunities to create a hot brine explosive matrix, and sales will double. We will speed up the expansion of snack and adult snack chains. At present, the company's core business supermarket channels are further sinking, and the successive efforts of quantitative packaging, circulation channels, e-commerce channels and snack channels will further open the growth space of the company.
Risk tip: channel expansion is lower than expected; The promotion of new products is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
