\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 83 Three Squirrels Inc(300783) )
The net profit in 2021 increased significantly, and the performance of 2022q1 was lower than expected under the impact of multiple factors
The company disclosed the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 9.77 billion yuan (- 0.24%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 411 million yuan (+ 36.43%); In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 3.089 billion yuan (- 15.85%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 161 million yuan (- 48.75%). In 2021, the decline of traditional e-commerce business and the slowdown of store business growth led to a slight decline in the company’s revenue, but the company was profit oriented and achieved a significant increase in net profit through omni-channel cost control and supply chain efficiency improvement. Under the influence of the epidemic, the logistics in some regions was blocked, and some offline stores were closed in stages. The company’s 2022q1 revenue and performance were lower than expected. Considering the repeated epidemic and the pain caused by the company’s active strategic transformation and adjustment under the background of channel reform, we lowered the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 333 (- 3.18) and 587 (- 182) million yuan respectively, increased the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to 697 million yuan, and the corresponding EPS were 0.83/1.46/1.74 yuan respectively. The current share price was 35.3/20.0/16.8 times that of PE from 2022 to 2024. We are optimistic about the company’s transformation prospect and maintain the “buy” rating.
Focus on nut categories, realize the simultaneous rise of volume and price, and promote regional distribution to bring new increment of offline business
Under the strategy of focusing on nuts, the company improved the mental preference of nuts with the help of China Central Television, ladder media, social media and other channels. In 2021, the revenue of nuts reached 5.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, the proportion of nut revenue increased by 2.3 percentage points to 51.8%, and the gross profit margin increased by 6.9 percentage points to 29.1%. At the same time, the company has vigorously expanded regional distribution. Through organization construction, goods building, system construction and dealer recruitment in the second half of the year, the company has officially distributed goods to the whole country in December, contributing 437 million yuan of operating revenue in 2021, bringing new increment to offline business.
The development path and mode are comprehensively upgraded, and the future development of nut leader can be expected
In terms of development path, the company will indirectly enter the second production and penetrate the first production through demonstration or alliance factories to promote the added value of nut products. In terms of development mode, the company will upgrade to omni-channel and multi brand, and build a more flexible e-commerce business unit, distribution business unit based on global layout and Xiaolu blue independent brand business unit through the establishment of nut super business unit. The channel side quickly promotes the coverage of regional distribution in the middle and lower tier markets of county-level cities and above, and the brand side explores and establishes a multi brand management matrix with the help of the sub brand incubation link of “Xiaolu blue”. At present, the company is in the throes of strategic transformation. In the future, with the improvement of supply chain integration ability and omni channel integration development ability, the company is expected to reap a new round of growth by superimposing the rapid growth of new brands.
Risk tip: online competition intensifies; The development of offline distribution business is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks, etc.
