\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 720 Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) )
The company released its 2021 annual report: in 2021, it achieved a revenue of 7.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 1.78%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 948 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 34.07%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent was 961 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 36.65%. Among them, the revenue in the fourth quarter alone was 1.851 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 06 million yuan.
The company’s annual revenue declined slightly: from the perspective of business, the company’s annual cement revenue was 6.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 1.51%, accounting for 89.7% of the revenue; Clinker achieved a revenue of 162 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.81%, accounting for 1.5%; The business mix revenue was 539 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.95%, accounting for 8%; Aggregate revenue was 47.833 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 59.25%. In terms of regions, during the reporting period, only the sales volume of Longnan and Qinghai Tibet increased, and the Tianshui region with the largest proportion of revenue was – 8.29% year-on-year, while the Longnan region with the second largest proportion of revenue and the highest gross profit margin was + 12.61% year-on-year. In other traditional advantageous regions, the revenue of Lanzhou accounted for 17%, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.40%; The revenue of Qinghai Tibet accounted for 16%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.56%. The declining region is mainly Gannan region, accounting for 4% of revenue, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.65%. The gross profit margin of each district decreased to varying degrees, mainly due to the rise of coal price and the decline of sales volume.
In terms of single ton index: the company currently has 17 cement production bases, 20 dry process clinker production lines in service, 9 commercial concrete production bases and 3 aggregate production bases put into operation, laying a foundation for the company’s market expansion. In terms of production and sales volume & ton indicators, ① the sales volume of cement (including clinker) in 2021 was about 235365 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.8%, and the average price was about 300 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.6 yuan / ton. Among them, the sales of cement was 22.804 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.9%, and the corresponding price was 303 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.2 yuan / ton; Clinker sales were 732500 tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 51.19%, and the corresponding price was 221 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of – 25 yuan / ton. The gross profit per ton of cement clinker was 85 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 27.4 yuan, of which the gross profit per ton of cement was 87 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 27 yuan. ② Aggregate sales volume was 1.3679 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 51.47% and a gross profit margin of 35.43%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.60 percentage points, lower than that in East and central China. ③ Commercial concrete was 1.408 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.2%, and the gross profit margin was 16.03%, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.16 percentage points.
In 2022, the revenue & production and marketing plan increased slightly: in 2022, the company plans to sell 23 million tons of cement +, 1.1 million cubic meters of commercial concrete + and 1.6 million tons of aggregate +, with a revenue of 8 billion +. The endogenous growth of the company is reflected in: ① expansion of cement production capacity and upgrading of production line. The planning target of the company’s cement production capacity is 40 million tons / year, more than half of the large line (5000 t / D); ② increase the contribution of aggregate and commercial concrete, 50 million tons of aggregate and 20 million cubic meters of commercial concrete (compared with the output of 1.78 million tons and 1.41 million cubic meters in 2021).
It is expected to benefit from the development of Northwest infrastructure: ① the acceleration of infrastructure projects, the publicity of land allocation for Lanzhou Zhongchuan Airport Phase III expansion project in April, the pouring of the first pile foundation of Lanzhou Hefei railway was completed on March 23, marking the official commencement of the main project. On March 31, the announcement of land use for the Wuwei Zhangye section of Lanzhou Zhangjiakou third and fourth line was issued, indicating that the construction is about to start. In addition, it also includes new projects such as Dingxi Pingliang Qingyang railway. ② Gansu Province plans to invest 100 billion yuan in transportation in 2022 (98 billion yuan is planned and 98.45 billion yuan will be completed in 2021). ③ Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) is the leader of Gansu Qinghai Tibet cement, leading the market of key projects such as airport and railway. Gansu and Qinghai account for 45% and 23%.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.19 billion yuan, 1.22 billion yuan and 1.28 billion yuan, corresponding to 7, 7 and 7 times of PE respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the project construction is not as expected; Risk of weather & Epidemic interfering with construction period.
