\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 956 Guilin Seamild Foods Co.Ltd(002956) )
The leading position was stable, and the rating was lowered to "overweight" due to the impact of the epidemic
Guilin Seamild Foods Co.Ltd(002956) 2021 revenue of 1.15 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6% year on year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 104 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%. In 2021, the company's market share ranked first in China, and the market share of offline channels was far ahead, with solid offline advantages. However, due to the impact of the epidemic and the adjustment period of the cold food oat industry, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 1.22 (- 0.58), 141 (- 0.78) and 160 million yuan, EPS will be 0.55, 0.63 and 0.72 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 29.1, 25.3 and 22.2 times, which will be lowered to the "overweight" rating.
Revenue grew steadily, and compound oatmeal performed well
2021q4 Guilin Seamild Foods Co.Ltd(002956) revenue increased by 6.9% year-on-year. In terms of specific products: 2021q4 pure oatmeal is basically the same; "Oat +" new products have good dynamic sales and fast growth, and composite oatmeal has a bright performance and fast growth; 2021q4 company increased the distribution of cold oats, with a high base, and the cold oats industry entered a period of adjustment, with a year-on-year decline in cold oats. The company's leading edge is stable and its market share continues to increase. According to Nielsen data, the market share of the company was about 14.8% in 2021, ranking first in the industry; The online channel market accounts for about 18.8%, far ahead. Looking forward to the future, the oat market still has potential. The company will continue to promote pure oats and composite oats, and upgrade the cold oats product matrix. It is expected that the company's revenue is still expected to grow steadily in 2022 under the omni channel development.
The decline of net interest rate was mainly due to the increase of sales expense rate
The net interest rate of the company in 2021q4 decreased by 7.7pct year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of sales expense ratio by 20.4pct to 42.6%: (1) the Spring Festival in 2022 is earlier, and 2021q4 is included in the Spring Festival expenses paid in advance; (2) The new products are still in the promotion period, and the activities are relatively strong; (3) tiktok and other new channels cost more. In 2021q4, the gross profit margin of the company increased by 12.5pct to 46.1%, of which the gross profit margin of e-commerce channels showed an upward trend. By product: (1) the gross profit margin of pure oats increased; (2) The gross profit margin of compound oatmeal decreased slightly, mainly because the production capacity is in the climbing period and there is more activity investment in the new product promotion period; (3) The gross profit margin of cold oatmeal increased slightly. Looking forward to 2022, it is expected that the imported Yanmai grains will rise moderately but can be controlled as a whole. The company can alleviate the pressure by upgrading the product structure, reducing costs and increasing efficiency; During the promotion of new products and channel development, the cost investment is still large, and the estimated cost rate is still high.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, new product promotion less than expected risk, food safety risk.
