\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 83 Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) )
The prosperity of soda ash and urea in Q1 continued to rise. The company's performance exceeded the upper limit of the forecast and maintained the "buy" rating
According to the company's performance report, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 2.681 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 19.81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 792 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 137.79%. In Q1 2022, the prices of the company's main products such as urea, soda ash and baking soda continued to rise, and the company's performance exceeded the upper limit of the forecast. In the future, the company will control Yingen mining by means of equity acquisition, capital increase and other means to build an 8.6 million ton natural alkali project. At present, the project is continuously promoted and its growth is prominent in the future. We maintain the company's profit forecast for 20222024. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 3.523 billion, RMB 4.033 billion and RMB 4.838 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.96, RMB 1.10 and RMB 1.32 respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 9.4, 8.2 and 6.9 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The replenishment of the downstream glass industry led to the rise in the price of soda ash, and the performance of the company, as the leader of natural soda, greatly exceeded expectations
According to Zhuo Chuang information data, the daily melting volume of float glass has always maintained a historical high of more than 172000 tons. Since the beginning of 2022, the production scheduling orders of the photovoltaic industry have been good, the inventory of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline, and the new capacity of photovoltaic glass has continued to be put into operation. As of April 21, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass increased from 41300 tons at the beginning of the year to 51900 tons. Meanwhile, by the beginning of March 2022, the soda ash inventory of Zhuo Chuang sample glass enterprises had decreased from 46.1 days at the end of September 2021 to 31.7 days. In Q4 of 2021, glass enterprises mainly consumed the middle reaches and their own soda ash inventory. Q1 under the background that the production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained high and increased, the glass factory carried out a new round of soda ash replenishment. The inventory of soda ash factory decreased rapidly and the price rose. Q1 China held a large-scale event and the company's natural alkali plant was overhauled. Although the output of natural alkali decreased, the original inventory fully supported the company's delivery orders. At the same time, the price of the company's main urea continued to rise, the company fully benefited, and Q1 performance greatly exceeded expectations.
The new production capacity of the industry or delayed production, and the shortage of soda ash supply may intensify in 2022
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the 200000 ton new capacity of Zhongyan hongsifang was originally expected to be put into operation in H1 in 2022, which is now postponed to the end of 2022; Jiangsu Debang's Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) ton relocation capacity was originally expected to be put into operation in H1 in 2022, but now it has also been postponed to the end of 2022. On the demand side, under the background of steady growth, the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass may remain high in 2022. Under the resonance of supply and demand, we expect that the tension of soda ash supply may further intensify in 2022, the price of soda ash is expected to continue to rise in the future, and the company, as the leader of natural soda, is expected to fully benefit.
Risk tips: the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the approval of project indicators is delayed, and the project construction is less than expected.
