\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 113 Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) )
Rising costs have dragged down Q4 performance, and the price difference has widened & new projects are expected to repair performance. Maintain "buy" rating
The company released its annual report, and realized a revenue of 11.98 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of +58.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 940 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.1%; Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 4.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 88.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 178.9%. After the olefin was put into operation, the price difference between propylene and propane narrowed, which dragged down Q4 performance. According to the product price difference and the operation of new projects, we appropriately lowered the profit forecast and added the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 13.0 (previous value 20.5) / 16.0 (previous value 20.7) / 2.12 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 39.4% / 22.8% / 32.7%; EPS is 1.52/1.87/2.48 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price, and PE is 7.1/5.8/4.3 times. Qingdao's phase I operation is mature and is expected to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The construction of phase II is orderly promoted. At the same time, the price difference between propylene and propane is expected to expand. It is optimistic about the company's profit restoration and maintains the "buy" rating.
Coke profit decreased slightly, carbon black profit expanded, and PDH temporarily dragged down performance
Coke profit decreased slightly: the total sales volume of coal coke products was 2.308 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of - 5.9%, the gross profit margin was 21.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9 percentage points, and the price of raw coal was + 63.9% year-on-year. The profit of coal coke products decreased slightly due to the high price of raw materials. Carbon black volume and price rose simultaneously: with the 480000 T / a green carbon black put into production in Qingdao, the annual carbon black sales volume was 456000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 24.4%. The price per ton was 6575 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 42.8%, and the gross profit was 1067 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 28.1% (absolute value + 234 yuan / ton). PDH temporarily dragged down the performance: the sales volume of olefins was 215000 tons (mainly Q4 sales), the purchase price of propane was 4319 yuan / ton, the selling price of olefins was 7231 yuan / ton, the cost was 7730 yuan / ton, the gross profit was - 499 yuan / ton, the price difference of Q4 propylene propane narrowed, and the initial cost of olefin products was relatively high, which temporarily dragged down the performance.
Cost reduction and efficiency increase & price spread expansion is expected to promote performance repair
Cost reduction and efficiency increase are expected to be promoted: Qingdao PDH project is the company's first petrochemical project. During the epidemic period, the company completed the world's first 900000 T / a PDH project with the largest monomer scale and put into operation. At the initial stage of the project, the olefin yield is 78% (about 80% in the market). The olefin price is low and the cost is relatively high. With the smooth operation of the project, the cost reduction and efficiency increase continue to be promoted, and the profitability is expected to be improved. Expansion of propylene propane price difference: in 2021, the propylene propane price difference in Q4 market narrowed significantly, the average price of propane (East China) was + 66.9% year-on-year, the price difference of propylene (FOB in Korea) was + 10.3% year-on-year, and the propylene propane price difference narrowed significantly by 89.1%. The high oil price supports the rise of propylene price. Compared with Q4 in 2021, the price difference between propylene and propane in Q1 in 2022 has been gradually repaired, and the profit of olefin products of the company is expected to be repaired.
There is still growth potential when new projects are put into operation
Qingdao phase II: the construction of 900000 T / a PDH and 2 450000 T / a high-performance polypropylene projects has begun and is planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2023. The company's PDH capacity will increase from 900000 T / A to 1.8 million T / A, and the olefin capacity will increase from 450000 T / A to 1.35 million T / A. the company has obvious growth. Offshore photovoltaic project: it is proposed to build 1000MW offshore photovoltaic power generation device, supporting 100MW / 200MW energy storage facilities, which is expected to generate about 1.2 billion kwh / year and reduce co21.35 million tons / year, which is in line with carbon neutralization. The land certificate of the project has been obtained, and the environmental assessment and grid connection procedures are being handled.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials and products; The construction progress of the project is less than expected
